Virginia or Virginia Tech: Which Program Is In a Better Place Moving Forward?

How do these two Commonwealth football programs stack up against each other at this point in the new season?

Sep 13, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott looks on from the field in a stoppage in play against the William & Mary Tribe during the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia and Virginia Tech have had polar opposite starts to their seasons. The Hokies are still winless and now led by interim head coach Phillip Montgomery after head coach Brent Pry was fired earlier this week. Virginia, led by Tony Elliott, are 2-1 with their one loss coming in an incredibly close contest against ACC-rival NC State.

We are going to take a look at how these two programs stack up in the long run based on where they stand at this point of the season.

Virginia Tech: Bleak Now, More Upside

Sep 13, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry during the third quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is pretty hopeless in 2025. It is not ideal for a football program to have to weather a leadership transition in the middle of the season. Not to mention, the Hokies are already way behind the eight ball with three losses under their belt this early.

Plus, former four-star recruit quarterback Kyron Drones has not taken the step VT's coaching staff has hoped for so far in his third year as the full-time starter. Drones has the second-worst Passer Rating (113.9), completion percentage (56.3%), and yards per completion (6.0) in the ACC.

However, Virginia Tech's recruiting edges out UVA, considerably. According to 247 Sports, VT had the 42nd-ranked recruiting class in the country going into this season. That ranks higher than large programs like Syracuse, Indiana, and Minnesota.

VT also ranks 16 spots ahead of Virginia. Athletes like four-star wide receiver Shamarius Peterkin and four-star running back Jeffrey Overton Jr. have the chance to develop into weapons for the offense.

Virginia: Coming Into Own, Graduating A Lot Of Key Pieces

Aug 30, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) throws the ball to Cavaliers wide receiver Jahmal Edrine (7) during the second quarter against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers are in quite a different position in 2025. UVA's offense seems to be clicking, but that could be due to the sheer amount of veteran pieces on the roster.

Virginia's starting offensive lineup is made up of all graduate transfers, redshirt seniors minus wide receiver Trell Harris and tight end Dakota Twitty. Yes, other weapons like Harrison Waylee and Kam Courtney have more eligibility after this season but this offense will be absolutely gutted come next season.

As I mentioned, the Hoos' recruiting has not kept pace with the older talent they have coming from the transfer portal. While the portal is a great way to find valuable pieces to complement an offense, recruiting sets the foundation for the entire program.

Virginia did not sign a single four-star recruit in 2025. Plus - even though its still early - next year's class is looking even thinner, ranking 80th in the country.

Focusing in on the quarterback position, the depth behind graduating senior Chandler Morris has almost no experience at the college level.

Backup Daniel Kaelin has gotten some reps in blowouts this season, completing under 50% of his passes and tossing an interception in two appearances. Last year, Kaelin did not even come close to the field when he was with Nebraska.

Three-star third-string quarterback Cole Geer is still only a true freshman. The Connecticut native has thrown just two passes since coming to Charlottesville.

More Attractive to the SEC or Big Ten?

Jul 16, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; SEC commissioner Greg Sankey speaks to the media during the SEC Media Day at Omni Atlanta Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Most realignment talk has been put to the side (thankfully), though there is plenty of speculation about what the future holds for each of the power four conferences. The SEC and Big Ten seemed destined to continue to run the sport and add teams to their leagues, and one of those teams seems likely to be Virginia. The Cavaliers have been rumored as a potential target in expansion and On3 Sports college football insider Brett McMurphy said as much last month.

It is not crazy at all to think that UVA is going to be a target for the two major conferences in college football and here is what McMurphy had to say about that during an appearance on "Andy and Ari On3":

"I don't know about you guys but I am surprised neither of you said 24. I think we are going to be 20 or 24 with the SEC and the Big Ten and the question is what is going on with the Big 12 and the ACC and are they going to be allowed to be a part of that group? I think it is very clear, if you want to speculate recklessly, about who it will be. After I reported that this morning, I immediately got a text from someone within the SEC and basically said what I have been thinking. It is North Carolina and Virginia will be highly contested between both conferences and where they end up, nobody knows, it is impossible to say, but I do think that they are the most attractive to both leagues. We will have to wait and see what happens, five years is a long time, two years is way but year speculate recklessly."

Like McMurphy said, this is just speculation and that is all that it is going to be for now, but the next wave of realignment is not that far away and it is clear to see why both North Carolina and Virginia are going to be coveted targets in that scenario.

Virginia has elite programs in a number of sports and is one of the top academic instituitions in the country. While football is the most important sport when it comes to finances, there is plenty of room to grow there from Virginia and if given in the SEC or Big Ten, I expect it to be better than what is currently being put out there. The basketball and baseball programs are seeking a return to elite status this upcoming season under their new head coaches.

UVA was also 12th in the directors cup standings.

Virginia Tech should be better when they get the right coach, but Virginia might just be in a better spot going forward.