What do the Advanced Analytics Say About Virginia's Matchup vs Wake Forest?

The Cavaliers open as a big favorite at home against Wake Forest. When you look at the betting lines, ESPN Bet Sportsbook has Virginia as a 6.5 favorite at home. The analytics follow a similar theme. ESPN’s FPI give Virginia a 78.5% chance to win and Wake Forest a 21.5% chance to win. Currently, Virginia is ranked as the No. 46 team, according to FPI. The analytics give the Cavaliers a 29.2% chance to make the college football playoff.

Wake Forest is coming off a brutal road loss to Florida State, where the offense only scored seven points. Robbie Ashford was held to 93 passing yards and had an interception. Their running game was shut down and limited to only 85 yards.

Virginia picked up their first victory in program history in the Pacific time zone and was able to outlast California in regulation. The defense was spectacular for the Cavaliers, forcing two turnovers and making it tough for California Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele.

A key in this game for Virginia will be slowing down running back Demond Claiborne. He has been one of the best running backs in the ACC this season. Claiborne has rushed for 639 yards and eight touchdowns. While Wake Forest couldn’t get it going on the ground last week, it will be a point of emphasis this week to establish and get it going early in the game.

How experience at Clemson is helping head coach Tony Elliot navigate the season.

Latest — Sept 9, 2023; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Head Coach Tony Elliot discussing plays over the headset to his players during the second half against the James Madison Dukes at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Hannah Pajewski-Imagn Images | Hannah Pajewski-Imagn Images

"I've leaned a lot on the many things that I observed and watched and listened and heard Coach Sweeney do with the teams that I was a part of, and really how do you create that mindset and that mentality? Because that's really what it is. You know, everyone calls them the cardiac calves, but really it's a mindset, man. These guys believe, right? They're going to find a way to win, right? It's a mindset, and then because of that mindset, they're able to go out and just find a way. And so, try to get ahead of it, you know, won't talk about it much. Everything we structure in our week is a daily focus, man. We just focus on each day and what we need to do on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday to get ready and then how we finish on Friday. So, we won't change our approach. If anything, man, we'll just be hammering more. Hey, cut your phone off, quit talking to friends. Hey, cut your family off. Like that's the hard part. You've got to cut everybody off to be honest with you, because everyone's going to you, you don't want to start talking about it. And the moment you start listening, then you're distracted and you don't put in the quality work that you need to be successful."

Virginia fans hope Saturday will continue to be a step in the right direction for a program on the rise and one that has to be taken seriously.

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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More Virginia Football News:

•No. 12 Virginia Opens as a Favorite To Win Week Eleven Matchup vs Wake Forest

•PFF Grades and Snap Counts From Virginia's Win Over California

•Predicting Where Virginia Will Land In This Week's AP Top 25

•Four Stars Who Led No. 15 Virginia to Victory Over California