What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About Virginia’s Chances To Defeat Missouri?

Virginia is an underdog heading into its matchup against Missouri on Saturday night

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Davis Lane Jr. (29) celebrates going into overtime against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Virginia is looking to secure its first 11-win season in program history. They finished the season with a 10-3 record and are looking to add one more win to their resume. The Cavaliers have won two of their last three games. Missouri had a disappointing end to the season after starting off 5-0, losing three of its final five games. Missouri finished the season with an 8-4 record. 

Coming into the matchup, Virginia is a heavy underdog against Missouri. The advanced analytics highly favor the Tigers on Saturday. According to ESPN’s FPI, Virginia is given just a 34.4% chance to win. Missouri is given a 65.6% chance to win on Saturday night. 

It’s a little bit surprising to see the numbers where they are according to the analytics. The numbers are much closer when you take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook odds. According to DraftKings, Missouri is a four-point favorite in the game. This means the oddsmakers see this game as closer and more of a toss-up on Saturday. It is interesting to see the distinction between the oddsmakers and analytics when it comes to this game on a neutral field. Virginia shouldn’t be discounted because they like physicality and playing teams with good rushing attacks, as evidenced by their No. 24-ranked rush defense in 2025. 

Will Virginia be able to retain Chandler Morris?  

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) looks to pass in the second half against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Our own Maria Aldrich provided great context and insight into the current Chandler Morris situation as he eyes another year of eligibility in college football. 

“At the time of this writing, a decision regarding the eligibility status of Morris has yet to be made. Virginia football's general manager, Tyler Jones, explained, per Greg Madia of The Daily Progress, that the Cavaliers have not heard from the NCAA, which leaves the program in a state of uncertainty. However, the Cavaliers remain hopeful that he will return.”

“While head coach Tony Elliott is planning for his return, he must also plan for a world in which he doesn't have Morris on his roster heading into 2026. He will still be in the company of sophomore quarterback Daniel Kaelin, but his experience as a signal caller is limited compared to the veteran players in college football. Because of this, Elliott may need to utilize the transfer portal, which is looking more and more likely.” 

I think she said it best for the Cavaliers. You can’t put all your eggs in one basket in hopes of landing Morris for another year. There are a number of viable quarterbacks in the transfer portal that can help the Cavaliers be right back in a prime position to contend in the ACC. Virginia should begin executing their backup plan for Morris in case he can’t return in 2026. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.