What Does ESPN's FPI Predict for Virginia's Remaining 2025 Games After Week Three Win?

What does the rest of the Hoo's season look like after the historic win over William & Mary?

Sep 13, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) celebrates with teammates after scoring a during the first half against the William & Mary Tribe at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

While UVA's offense has looked dominant and their defense has held their own, the level of competition faced up until this point is not representative of how the rest of their schedule will play out. With tough ACC opponents a little further down the schedule, Virginia must keep taking steps in the right direction and if they want their current success to transfer to the bigger stages ahead.

Before the season, ESPN's FPI predicted Virginia to finish the season with a 6-6 record. Did that win total change after this week's electric win over William & Mary.

Game 4 vs Stanford: FPI gives Virginia an 78% chance to win this game (Preseason: 62%)

After FPI gave UVA a 82% chance to win the matchup against Stanford last week, FPI did drop the likelihood of a win a few points to 78%. Stanford still looks like one of if not the worst team in the power four conferences. Virginia is still heavily favored against a lackluster Cardinals' team but Stanford's solid run defense could have given them the slight boost.

Game 5 vs Florida State- FPI gives Florida State a 61% chance to win this game (No change from week three)

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) catches a touchdown during the first half against the East Texas A&M at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State still looks like one of the best teams in not only the ACC but the entire country. Florida has already proved how talented they are taking down a star-studded Alabama team. However, Virginia is trending in the right direction through a few weeks so it is not completely out of this world they could put up a competitive performance.

Game 6 vs Louisville- FPI gives Louisville a 63% chance to win this game (No change since last week)

Louisville continues to handle business throughout the easy early season schedule, similar to Virginia. An ineffective passing game is really holding the Cardinals back. If Virginia's defense can focus up, their offense can take control of this game.

Game 7 vs Washington State- FPI gives Virginia an 94% chance to win this game (86% last week)

These two teams are trending in different directions. Virginia looks more confident and effective each week so far this season. On the other hand, Washington State's season looks more dreary as the schedule moves week to week. Last week's 49-point loss to North Texas is a troubling sign for WSU.

Game 8 vs North Carolina- FPI gives Virginia a 69% chance to win this game (70% last week)

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) looks to pass in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Hoos odds fell slightly after falling to NC State but are basically the same this week. UNC did easily handle Richmond but that was expected. Virginia should still have no issue with the Tar Heels.

Game 9 vs California- FPI gives Cal a 58% chance to win this game (54% last week)

Cal has looked good to start the season. Two blowout wins over Oregon State and Texas Southern, followed by an underdog win against a Big Ten opponent in Minnesota, are signs this Cal team might be better than most expected.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest- FPI gives Virginia an 87% chance to win this game (86% last week)

Sep 11, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack wide receiver Keenan Jackson (8) runs past Wake Forest Demon Deacons defensive back Nick Andersen (45) in the second half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images | Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images

Wake Forest is coming off their own loss to NC State this week. After starting off 2-0 against two weak opponents, costly turnovers stifled their offense's momentum against the Wolf Pack. Based on how close UVA ran with NC State, UVA should be able to pull out a win.

Game 11 vs Duke- FPI gives Virginia a 51% chance to win this game (55% chance last week)

After the odds flipped in Virginia's favor following a tough Duke loss to Illinois, the odds are moving closer back to even this week. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is one of the best passers in the country. Stopping him is the key to beating the Blue Devils.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech- FPI gives Virginia a 74% chance to win this game (66% last week)

Jul 24, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry answers questions from the media during ACC Media Days at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech might be the biggest under-performers in the NCAA so far this season. After starting 0-3 through what should have been the easiest portion of their schedule, VT pulled the trigger and fired head coach Brent Pry. Tony Elliott is looking at his best chance to beat the Hokies so far during his tenure at UVA.

FPI's Projected record: 8-4, 5-3 ACC