What’s at Stake for the Virginia Cavaliers' Week Twelve Matchup vs Duke?

The Virginia Cavaliers are in an interesting spot in college football this season. Having sparked an incredible winning streak and knocking down ranked opponents earlier in their campaign, fans were hoping that the Cavaliers would remain undefeated in the ACC. Unfortunately, UVA was unable to edge out Wake Forest during week eleven. The Demon Deacons defeated Virginia at Scott Stadium by a score of 16-9.

Despite the dreadful ending to their streak, Virginia's head coach, Tony Elliott, immediately started preparing for his program's week twelve matchup against Duke. As he explained during his latest press conference:

"... you got to go in the month of November. You've got to go to another level, right? You have to find something deeper inside of you, right, to push you to motivate you because it's easy to say, ‘Oh, well, we know what it takes, right? ‘Well, you're going to get everybody's best. So you have to have your best, and each week that bar is raising.

So that's what we're taking into this game. And then really just an opportunity for us to want to know, get back to that feeling that we enjoy in the locker room. But we're learning from last week that, man, you get what you earn. And so if you don't have your best, then you're not going to, you get what you earn. But if you bring your best, then you take control of the situation and you don't leave it up to chance or to somebody else."

What’s on the Line?

A football player in a white and navy blue uniform running with a brown football past a player in a blue and gold uniform — Nov 1, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) breaks a big gainer against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

After dropping a matchup in which they were expected to win last week, UVA has an opportunity to redeem itself this weekend. Defeating the Blue Devils would be a major step in the right direction, and with the regular season coming to a close, there is little room for error.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are listed as a 4.5-point underdog with the over/under set at 58.5. Numerous projections have Duke winning, including ESPN's FPI, which only gives Virginia a 39.3% chance of winning. However, Virginia has proven themselves to be capable of beating the odds.

When looking back to one of their most daunting opponents this year — Florida State — UVA had a 40% chance of winning, and during their game the following week against Louisville, the Cavaliers were also considered underdogs. Despite the spread, UVA came out on top both times, nailing two consecutive upsets.

Now facing the Blue Devils as an underdog once again, Virginia has a chance to claim another upset. Doing so would push them higher in the CFP rankings and strengthen the Cavaliers' position in the ACC. Pressure is on for UVA — will they be able to make a comeback?

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