SP+ Predicts Virginia-No. 14 Wake Forest Final Score

Virginia is an underdog, the biggest in a long time

Oct 23, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Solomon Beebe (28) carries the ball against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The next opponent for Virginia football is a road battle No. 14 Wake Forest, which appears be the second-best team in the ACC. That is not the ideal matchup for a 4-4 Cavaliers team that is 0-3 away from Scott Stadium this season.

So — does Virginia have a chance, and what can it do to win its fifth win?

A look at the analytics

The SP+ metric is a valued predictor for college football games, engineered by ESPN's Bill Connelly. This week, SP+ predicted a 30-21 Wake Forest win, with a 71% chance of a Demon Deacons victory.

That's not ideal for the Cavaliers. The oddsmakers agree, as according to DraftKings Sportsbook, Wake Forest is favored by 13.5 points.

Oct 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons defensive lineman Langston Hardy (11) celebrates his sack of California Golden Bears quarterback Jackson Brousseau with teammate Gabe Kirschke (10) during the third quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It makes why the Cavaliers are heavy underdogs. The biggest flaws of this team (missed tackles, poor passing offense, missed assignment and inconsistent coaching) are all executed perfectly by Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons are a well-oiled machine, one that seldom makes errors. On the other hand, Wake Forest capitalizes on opponents' mistakes. Virginia's self-inflicted errors could be a one-way ticket to the receiving end of a big blowout.

However, the fact that SP+ predicts a nine-point game bodes well for the Cavaliers. There are other ACC games that feature a much more bulbous difference in the projected final score.

After all, on paper, the Cavaliers do have the talent to be competitive in this football game.

Virginia's defense was stellar against Duke, holding the Blue Devils to just 10 points in the first three quarters of play. Superstar running back Nate Sheppard was held under 60 rushing yards. The Cavaliers' run defense is elite so long as they do not come down with a case of snowballing missed tackles.

The key, against the Demon Deacons, then, is to emphsaize the pass defense. Wake Forest lives through the air attack. In particular, receiver Carlos Hernandez ranks third in the ACC in receiving yards with 720. He is averaging over 100 yards per game, utilizing a lengthy wingspan and reliable hands to terrorize opposing defensive backs.

Virginia already lost starting cornerback Omillio Agard to a season-ending injury, and others are dealing with ailments too (Brandyn Hillman, Ethan Minter and Corey Costner). The backups have performed well, but Hernandez presents a huge challenge just as the Syracuse wideouts did.

At this point, the Cavaliers are fighting a war on multiple fronts. However, anything can happen in college football. Maybe Virginia gives Wake Forest a real scare on Halloween.

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