FPI Predicts Virginia To Finish With Losing Record. What Went Wrong?

The Cavaliers are favored in just one of their final five games

Oct 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula (7) before the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia is on the verge of an all-out freefall, if it isn't in one already.

The Cavaliers put up a fight against SMU, but two costly errors led to a 10-point swing in a game Virginia lost by 10 points. This team has yet to win a game away from the comforts of Scott Stadium. As a result, these Cavaliers are not viewed fondly by ESPN's Football Power Index.

In fact, Virginia is projected to finish with an ugly 5-7 record. Considering the challenging back end of this schedule, that would not be impossible. Here is a game-by-game update:

Duke: 49.5% chance of victory (Previously 50.5)

The only reason Duke isn't a sizable favorite is that the Blue Devils are on a two-game losing streak. However, they are still a 4-2 team led by Nate Sheppard, arguably the best running back in college football at the moment. Virginia could have a hard time earning sweet revenge Friday night.

At No. 17 Wake Forest: 17.3% chance of victory (Prev. 21.5)

The Demon Deacons have firmly established themselves as the ACC's top challenger to No. 1 Miami. Wake Forest is a disciplined unit that plays hard and wears opponents down. It will be very difficult for the Cavaliers to flip the script and hand the ranked Demon Deacons a loss at home (which is what Wake Forest did at Virginia last year).

Cal: 85.0% chance of victory (Prev. 82.4)

Cal is falling with no end in sight. The Golden Bears were supposed to be a sneaky ACC contender, but instead sit at 3-4. Virginia is heavily favored for several reasons. However, Cal is still capable of authoring an upset. It handed Virginia Tech a surprising loss.

North Carolina: 46.7% chance of victory (Prev. 48.9)

North Carolina is turning a corner. The Tar Heels are currently fifth in the ACC, fueled by a suffocating defense and an offense that is somewhat capable of making things interesting. It is a tad surprising to see the Cavaliers as the home underdog here, but North Carolina has earned those odds by keeping pace with Notre Dame earlier this season.

At Virginia Tech: 41.2% chance of victory (Prev. 42.9)

At one point, the Commonwealth Clash could have been primed to be the play-in game for a trip to Charlotte. Instead, both of these teams have had their flaws exposed and have become wildly unpredictable. All things considered, 41% is a kind number for Virginia.