Staff predictions for the 2026 Virginia football season — great success abound?

UVA On SI's writers share their thoughts about the campaign

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott runs off the field after defeating the North Carolina Tar Heels in overtime at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ahead of the Cavaliers’ season opener Saturday against NC State, the Virginia On SI staff submitted their predictions for the season. Below, read the forecast from four football writers:

Jackson Caudell: 10-2

UVA is being slept on heading into the 2026 season. There is, of course, skepticism that they can repeat the kind of success they had last season, winning multiple one-possession games, as well as multiple overtime games, but this is a veteran roster that has serious upside. 

Beau Pribula gives them a running threat at quarterback, they are deep at running back, they have a veteran offensive line, and arguably the best defensive player in the ACC in Kam Robinson. I believe Virginia is going to get to the ACC Championship game for the second straight season, but will fall to the Miami Hurricanes in Charlotte. 

Xander Tilock: 10-2 

When making this prediction, two big factors come into play — the fact that this is the most experienced team in the country, and the fact that said team does not have a tremendously difficult schedule. Tony Elliott's Virginia team will be favored in all but three games, and it is probably not going 0-3 against SMU, Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers should win one of those games, if not two.

Honestly, I am shocked by how many analysts have completely ignored the manageable schedule plus the talent and experience on this team (some writers have mentioned players that aren’t even on the roster). Virginia will absolutely overperform its projected 7-5 record, and it has the depth to win 10-plus games. 

The Cavaliers can rely on 2025’s second-best scoring defense in the ACC, and an offensive line featuring all five starters with all-conference honors and a deep running back room to boot. This will be one of the top three teams in the ACC, period.

It is entirely possible for Virginia to even go 11-1 this year, depending on how their opponents perform. The biggest question with this team is not if they will find success, but rather if they can make the program’s debut in the College Football Playoff.

Steve DeShazo: 10-2

Much has been made of Virginia's favorable schedule, which includes no regular-season meetings with Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville or Georgia Tech, plus a seventh home game after Saturday's season opener against NC State was moved from Brazil to Charlottesville.

The Cavaliers should be favored in every home game — prohibitively so against nonconference opponents Norfolk State and Delaware — and also in their matchup with a rebuilding West Virginia squad in Charlotte.  It's possible that they'll enter only the Oct. 17 date at SMU as underdogs.

It gets even better, though. 

California's explosive offense, led by quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, is a concern, except the Nov. 14 date in Scott Stadium will be the jet-lagged Golden Bears' third straight road game following visits to SMU and NC State and their second cross-country trip in 14 days. Both teams will be coming off byes, but Virginia will be rested and playing at home.

Likewise, Florida State — eager to avenge last season's double-overtime loss in Scott Stadium — will already have played SMU and Alabama by the time Virginia visits Tallahassee on Oct. 3, fresh off completing its nonconference slate. The Seminoles imploded last year after losing to the Cavaliers, and with Coach Mike Norvell on the hottest of seats, their morale could be flagging again if they get off to another slow start.

Yes, there are concerns for the Cavaliers, including questions with the receiving corps.  But there's enough depth and talent to stay competitive.

They went 5-3 in one-score games a year ago, showing their resolve. Those things tend to even out over time, though. and there's a chance they could stumble against NC State, Cal or Virginia Tech — particularly if the revenge-minded Hokies need to win the finale for bowl eligibility in James Franklin's first season.  

Sustained success has been fleeting for this program in the 21st century. Still, this looks like a team that can reach double-digit wins for just the third time in school history, but it can't afford to lose focus or look ahead.