SP+ Predicts the Final Score For Virginia-NC State's Week Zero Matchup

Virginia is favored to win Saturday against NC State, according to Fanduel. Multiple beat writers have also predicted a Cavaliers win, with a range of final scores and in-game developments. There is also another voice — the voice of analytics.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly favors Virginia, with his SP+ system predicting a 62% chance of victory for the team in orange and blue. The projected score is 28-23 in favor of the Cavaliers at Scott Stadium. But what is SP+, and what does this Virginia-NC State matchup look like?

Explaining SP+

According to Connelly, SP+ is based on efficiency, explosiveness, field position, turnovers and finishing drives. In the case of Saturday’s season opener, SP+ has to be more of a forecast than a strong analytical tool given that there have not been any previous games to assess.

“It takes a while for a college football team to create data of statistical significance or establish reliable priors,” Connelly said. “Therefore, for predictive purposes, you have to lean pretty heavily on preseason projections. [SP+ considers] recent performance, recent recruiting and returning production — early in the season, they carry significant weight, and they are phased out with increasing speed. After a team has played seven games, its preseason projections are completely phased out of the S&P+ equation.”

Why would SP+ like the Cavaliers?

Virginia has flown under the preseason radar of several analysts. The same applies for Tony Elliott’s recent recruiting classes. The Cavaliers do have an advantage in terms of recent performance and returning production, though — certainly more so than a majority of the ACC on both fronts.

Virginia’s roster has more career snaps, starts and games played than any other Power Four team, and it isn’t particularly close. Conversely, NC State ranks in the bottom 10 of those statistics among Power Four teams. With little information to base predictions on, it makes sense to consider 2025 along with roster makeup. The Cavalier veterans could make a major impact.

Virginia Cavaliers safety Antonio Clary (0) is talked to by head coach Tony Elliott before running on the field. — Virginia Cavaliers safety Antonio Clary (0) is talked to by head coach Tony Elliott before running on the field before the first quarter of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025, in Jacksonville. Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

SP+ notes

Projected winner: Virginia
Chance of victory: 62%
Projected margin: 4.9
Projected score: Cavaliers 28, Wolfpack 23
Under on Fanduel’s Over/Under

Virginia and NC State kick off at 3:30 p.m. Saturday at Scott Stadium, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. This will be the only Power Four game played in the United States during week zero of the 2026 college football season. The game is also the first of ACC play.

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