Three reasons Virginia can beat Florida State -- and three reasons it might not

Last season's memorable meeting between Florida State and Virginia in Charlottesville was a pivotal moment for both programs.

The Cavaliers used their dramatic 46-38 victory as a springboard to their first-ever outright regular-season Atlantic Coast Conference title. It was their first signature triumph in a seven-game winning streak and the first of four straight one-score decisions.

Students stormed Scott Stadium's field after the final play, and "I felt like that game kind of gave the entire team confidence that, 'Okay, we can really make a run at this,' " receiver Kam Courtney said.

It had the opposite effect on FSU, which entered the game ranked eighth in the nation after knocking off Alabama. It started the Seminoles on a four-game slide, and they dropped seven of their final nine to finish 5-7.

Most observers expect another nail-biter in Saturday's rematch in Tallahassee; DraftKings projects Virginia as a 1.5-point road favorite. Here are three reasons why the Cavaliers can win -- and three reasons they might not.

WHY VIRGINIA COULD WIN

Improved passing game: Rico Flores Jr.'s return from nagging hamstring issues gives Beau Pribula another reliable target — and opens up more opportunities for his teammates.

Flores had nine catches for 113 yards against Delaware. Kam Courtney produced his first two collegiate receiving touchdowns, and Da'Shawn Martin and Josiah Abdullah had one each.

That once-maligned group hopes for similar success against a Seminole secondary that has been shredded through four games. FSU ranks 16th in the ACC and 135th out of 138 FBS teams, allowing 290 yards per game and a league-high 8.3 per pass attempt.

Takeaway tendencies: In its three wins, Virginia's defense has six interceptions and a fumble recovery. In its loss to WVU, it didn't force a single turnover.

Florida State's Ashton Daniels is the latest dangerous dual-threat quarterback to face the Cavaliers, but he has been a bit loose with the ball, throwing five interceptions in four games. If Virginia's front seven can force him into passing situations, they can turn sacks or deflected passes into takeaways.

Seminoles are unproven: Yes, Virginia is 0-1 away from home. But FSU's two wins have come against New Mexico State (1-3) and Central Arkansas (2-3), neither of whom will be confused with Notre Dame. The Seminoles allowed 50 points to Alabama and couldn't beat SMU at home despite forcing four turnovers.

FSU coach Mike Norvell's seat is red hot, and if Virginia gets out to an early lead, the usual home-field advantage at Doak Campbell Stadium could turn into a chorus of boos.

WHY VIRGINIA COULD LOSE

Duce Robinson: FSU's 6-foot-6, 230-pound torched the Cavaliers with nine receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown last season. If he hadn't juggled a potential second scoring catch in the second overtime, the game might have turned out differently.

This year's Virginia secondary has several new starters, but couldn't keep up with West Virginia's dynamic receivers two weeks ago. Expect the Seminoles to target Robinson early and often again.

Running mates: Also like WVU, FSU has a solid running duo of Ousmane Kromah (397 yards, five touchdowns) and Daniels (142 yards, four scores). Kromah is averaging a whopping 6.2 yards per carry.

Virginia has held its opponents under 100 yards on the ground in each of its three wins, but the Mountaineers gashed the Cavaliers for 247 rushing yards. The Seminoles likely will study that tape and try to replicate WVU's success.

Special teams: It's not a huge concern, but Will Bettridge has missed his last two field goal attempts (both inside 40 yards) for Virginia after setting a school record with 24 successful three-pointers last year. Meanwhile, FSU's Gabe Panikowski has been perfect on all five of his attempts and all 15 extra points.

Both punters are solid: Virginia's Daniels Sparks is averaging 45.8 yards per kick, FSU's Daniel Hughes 44.5. Samuel Singleton Jr. is a dangerous return man for the Seminoles (32 yards per kickoff runback).

If the game comes down to a final kick, Bettridge's confidence may come into play. And if anyone knows the agony of wide left (or right), it's the Seminoles.

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