Virginia a sizable favorite at Florida State according to SP+

Saturday, the biggest test of Virginia's season to date arrives at Florida State. Notoriously a difficult place to play, Doak Campbell Stadium provides a new challenge for the Cavaliers.

However, the analytics do not favor the hosting Seminoles. Instead, SP+ predicts Virginia to earn a 30-24 win. The Cavaliers have a 65% chance of victory, higher than the Football Power Index assessment of 58.4%.

The 65% chance of victory is fourth-highest among ACC games this week, only behind SMU's chances against Boston College (90%), Miami's chances at Clemson (87%) and Wake Forest's chances against Stanford (82%).

A national look

Overall, Virginia is ranked No. 21 in the SP+ team rankings, with a total rating of 14.4.

The grade of 14.4 is good for third in the ACC behind Miami (No. 5, grade of 25.7) and Pitt (No. 20, grade of 14.7). The next closest ACC teams are SMU (No. 26), Virginia Tech (No. 28), Duke (No. 34) and Louisville (No. 37).

SP+ accounts for a team's performance relative to pregame expectations. Positive plays, minimal penalties and covering the spread all boost a team's rating. Converely, a rating can be hurt by losing turnovers, negative plays and failing to cover the spread.

Through four games, the Cavaliers are one of just 14 teams with a top-50 ranking in SP+ offense (31), defense (20) and special teams (50).

Inside the matchup

Virginia regained its momentum, coming off of a shellacking delivered to Delaware. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been remarkably efficient — throwing more touchdowns than incompletions at home. He ranks top-10 nationally in completion percentage, quarterback rating and passing touchdowns.

On the other side, Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels has been average at best. Against New Mexico State, he completed 63% of his attempts for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Against SMU, Daniels completed 52% of his passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. Then things got interesting.

At No. 10 Alabama, he threw for 377 yards and two touchdowns (completing 58.6% of his attempts). However, Daniels threw three interceptions. Florida State lost by 14. Last weekend, Daniels tossed another interception. His ceiling is high, but the floor is brutally low.

A blueprint has been presented for Virginia's defense to force some costly turnovers. If star receiver Duce Robinson can be limited, Daniels will be put into uncomfortable situations. A turnover is especially valuable for a Cavaliers team that can bleed out the clock on long touchdown drives.

Add us as a preferred source on Google