Updated FPI game-by-game predictions ahead Virginia's duel with Florida State

Since the last Football Power Index check-in two weeks ago, a lot has changed around for Virginia around the ACC. Some games that were previously near-locks (Duke and Wake Forest) are now likely to be high-stakes matchups in the ACC standings.

However, the overall outlook remains about the same. ESPN predicts the Cavaliers to go 10-2 (8-1 ACC), which would be enough to earn a spot in the ACC title game as long as three of Miami, Clemson, Pitt and SMU lose at least one or two more ACC games.

Here is the game-by-game outlook:

At Florida State: 58.4% chance of victory (Previously 53.9%)

The Seminoles remain one of the bigger unknowns in the conference. After a brutally frustrating home loss to SMU, Florida State came a few plays away from upsetting Alabama on the road. This week's game is a true tipping point for the Seminoles — and Virginia.

Syracuse: 84.3% chance of victory (Prev. 77.3%)

Quarterback Steve Angeli has struggled. A lot. His interception total nearly matches his touchdown total, and Syracuse's season might be over before it started. The Orange are in desparate need of a win, more so than just about any other team in the Power Four.

At SMU: 45.6% chance of victory (Prev. 34.6%)

The Mustangs have looked more like an eight-win team than a Playoff team so far. As a result, this game has gone from near-impossible to a true toss-up. Virginia has an increasingly decent chance to steal the upset in Dallas and take pole position in the ACC title race.

Duke: 58.7% chance of victory (Prev. 73.6%)

Duke has been one of the bigger positive surprises in the conference. Its offense has picked up where it left off (despite a massive portal exodus), and the defense has taken major strides. Right now, the Blue Devils could very well run the table and return to Charlotte.

At Wake Forest: 58.3% chance of victory (Prev 62.5%)

Aside from Duke, Wake Forest has been the biggest pleasant surprise in the ACC this year. The Demon Deacons nearly upset No. 4 Miami, and just upset No. 16 Louisville. This Halloween bout looks increasingly dangerous for the Cavaliers.

Cal: 90.6% chance of victory (Prev. 90.8%)

This number might still be too high. Yes, the Golden Bears have sputtered out of the gate, but there is too much talent on this offense for Cal to be mediocre.

North Carolina: 74.1% chance of victory (Prev. 69.8%)

Bill Belichick's Tar Heels team is elite defensively. Once again, all questions reside on the offensive side of the ball. Can North Carolina keep pace with Virginia?

At Virginia Tech: 53.1% chance of victory (Prev. 49.4%)

In a shocking development, the Cavaliers' odds continue to rise in this game. Virginia Tech as a home underdog is a great surprise — but Virginia does have a loaded roster with the ability to steal a win in Blacksburg, Va.

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