Virginia bowl game projections: Week zero edition

Where could the Cavaliers end up in December?

Dec 27, 2025; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) poses for a photo with tight end Sage Ennis (0) after defeating the Missouri Tigers at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In just six days, there will be college football. Virginia is raring to go, and begin a long journey back towards contending for the ACC championship. Here is where the Cavaliers were spotted for this week’s bowl game projections.

Where do national outlets have the Cavaliers this week?

• ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Holiday Bowl vs. Washington
• ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Wisconsin
• CBS (Brad Crawford): Gasparilla Bowl vs. South Carolina

The Holiday Bowl would mark a successful season for Virginia. Currently reserved for one ACC team and one former Pac-12 team, the 2025 Holiday Bowl featured SMU vs. Arizona. It is one of the top bowl games outside of the College Football Playoff.

The Mayo Bowl would be a step down from 2025, but it is still a respected game. Last season, Wake Forest beat Mississippi State in Charlotte. The Gasparilla Bowl is in that same tier — the previous matchup was an NC State win over Memphis. Usually, these teams win seven to nine games. 

My projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Utah

As it stands right now, the clear hierarchy in the ACC should be Miami atop the conference, with Virginia and SMU as the obvious “battling for second place” teams. Regardless of the result of the Cavaliers versus Mustangs game, if Virginia wins 10 games, it should be in a top-tier bowl game once again (Pop-Tarts, Gator or Holiday). 

The top non-Playoff bowl game for an ACC team would be the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando, against the Big 12’s best non-Playoff team. If Texas Tech and BYU both make the CFP, then perhaps Utah earns the Pop-Tarts bid. 

The Utes are reloading under longtime defensive coordinator-turned head coach Morgan Scalley, but should still be competitive. The Big 12 is difficult to predict — so it is entirely possible that Houston, Arizona, TCU or Oklahoma State claim the Pop-Tarts spot instead. Utah begins the season ranked No. 21, so it is certainly a reasonable option to finish third in the Big 12. 

Another variable is SMU — if the Mustangs win double-digit games and do not earn a CFP spot, then they would most likely receive the Pop-Tarts spot. Virginia would then move to the Gator or the Holiday game, unless it beats SMU in Dallas to finish ahead in the standings and earn a spot in the ACC title game again.

Playing in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Utah would mark a fantastic season for the Cavaliers.