Will (Or Should) Virginia Be Ranked Top-Five in Today’s AP Poll?

Sunday, No. 9 Virginia picked up just the second win against a top-12 opponent this season (UCLA owns the other).

Other than the Bruins' win, there isn't a single team in college basketball with a better victory than the Cavaliers' 19-point win over No. 12 Arkansas. So — where will Virginia be ranked in this afternoon's AP Poll?

The basic facts

No. 5 Arizona is going to slide after it lost to UCLA. No. 9 Virginia is going to move up after beating the Razorbacks. Those should be regarded as facts. However, the extent of those moves will remain unknown until the afternoon.

More facts — the top four (Florida, Duke, Illinois and UConn) probably aren't going anywhere.

The more intriuging conversation is if the Cavaliers did enough in the eyes of voters to leapfrog past No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Tennessee.

Virginia's case to be ranked No. 5

The Longhorns and Volunteers have yet to play a high-major opponent (or an even recognizable opponent). On strength of schedule, Virginia has a vastly superior resume.

It was a surprise to see Texas and Tennessee ranked ahead of the Cavaliers to begin the season. The Longhorns' stock is based almost entirely on freshmen and new additions (unproven together), and the Volunteers are completely reconstructed after losing players to the NBA Draft and transfer portal.

Virginia, meanwhile, is a proven winner with the core of Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis and Johann Grunloh. The Cavaliers are even more proven after they led by as many as 27 against Arkansas.

If AP voters share that perspective, it wouldn't be crazy at all to see Virginia swipe Arizona's inevitably vacated No. 5 spot.

Grunloh dunk. A rebound, Lewis dunk. It feels like JPJ in here. pic.twitter.com/hUeTa0PqPk
— Xander (@xandertilock) November 8, 2026

The road ahead

It would be an unprecedented shock if the Cavaliers don't move up by multiple spots.

A big leap would be very valuable for Virginia, as it probably won't have a chance to play another ranked team for almost a month, when Kentucky comes to Charlottesville for a Dec. 2 bout. Games against Maryland, Marquette and Xavier could hopefully be Quad 1 wins, but they won't be season-defining victories.

More likely than not, any movement involving the Cavaliers' ranking over the next few weeks will have more to do with other teams. If teams ahead of them lose, Virginia moves up. If teams behind them earn valuable ranked wins, the Cavaliers could slide a bit outside of their own power.

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