Hughes: Is North Carolina A Must-Win For Virginia Tech?
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Virginia Tech and No. 16 North Carolina square off Saturday, with Tech's postseason hopes potentially hanging in the balance.
The Hokies (18-10, 7-8 ACC) have straddled the bubble for the NCAA Tournament for nearly the entire season, and sit just outside ESPN's bubble with three games left to go in the regular season. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi listed the Hokies as the sixth team out (No. 74 seed) in his latest bracket.
After North Carolina, Virginia Tech ends off its home slate vs. Boston College on March 3 before venturing up to Charlottesville to contest No. 14 Virginia on March 7.
So, do I think that Virginia Tech's showdown with No. 16 North Carolina is a must-win? Yes — and here's why.
The Hokies currently stand in a position where they draw little resume boost from their home bout with the Eagles. Meanwhile, Tech's two ranked bouts come at a time where it has gone 3-5 on the road, and 2-5 in such games in league play.
Simply put, if Virginia Tech continues on the trajectory it's on right now, it will more than likely miss the tournament. As an added note, how much weight the ACC Tournament will carry in regard to bubble teams' hopes is yet to be determined. As such, the Hokies need a boost in their regular season resume to feel more comfortable about their hopes of making the tournament.
There's a decent case to be made for Virginia Tech being one of the 68 teams in the field if it pulls off a ranked upset vs. either North Carolina or Virginia. At that point, the Hokies would presumably hold four Quadrant 1 victories (Clemson, Syracuse, either UVA 2x or UVA and UNC) and retain a perfect record in Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 contests, courtesy of Florida State moving up to a Quad 2 designation.
It also helps that North Carolina's Caleb Wilson, currently nursing a fractured wrist, is likely to miss Saturday's contest. According to ESPN's Dave O'Brien, Wilson expects to be back for the Tar Heels' game against No. 3 Duke on March 7. Through 24 games, Wilson has averaged a team-leading 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game for the Tar Heels.
In his most recent full game, Wilson poured in 23 points and four rebounds against then-No. 4 Duke on Feb. 7 in a 71-68 victory. Wilson exited early against Miami on Feb. 10 with his aforementioned wrist injury after logging 12 points in 26 minutes.
Caleb Wilson (hand) of @UNC_Basketball expects to be back for the Duke game March 7, per Dave O’Brien of ESPN
— Adam Zagoria (@AdamZagoria) February 24, 2026
Virginia Tech's contest vs. the No. 16 Tar Heels tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET, and viewing will be available on ESPN2.
Thomas is a sophomore at Virginia Tech majoring in multimedia journalism with a minor in creative writing. He currently works with Collegiate Times, Virginia Tech's student-run newspaper, as a staff writer for its sports section. In addition, he also writes for 3304 Sports as a staff writer and on-air talent, as well as Aspiring Journalists at Virginia Tech as a curator. You can find him on X: @thomashughes_05.
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