Hughes: Virginia Tech's Clash with Miami Must-Win — And What's The Desirable ACC Tourney Path?

The Hokies have five regular-season games — plus the ACC Tournament — left to make their case for an NCAA Tournament selection.

Feb 14, 2026; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech head coach Mike Young applauds for his team during the second half. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

I'll start by saying this: Virginia Tech's clash against Miami tomorrow is a must-win for a myriad of reasons. For one, the Hokies are running out of resume-enhancing opportunities, and an 8-10 record in league play (if all remaining games are chalk) won't cut it for the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps a 9-9 record, even given the relative strength of the ACC this year, won't cut it, unless Virginia Tech claims some serious wins in the ACC Tournament.

On to Miami

🤝 @CarilionClinic pic.twitter.com/uZNJIdcYeT

— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 16, 2026

Even the Hokies' "gimme" games — Wake Forest and Boston College, both of which will be at home — are by no means secure. Head coach Mike Young is 1-6 against the Eagles while at Blacksburg, while Virginia Tech lost to Wake Forest 81-78 in Winston-Salem on Jan. 3 and is 1-5 against the Demon Deacons in the two teams' last six meetings.

The Hokies likely don't draw a net-positive in the NET metrics from beating either Wake Forest or Boston College; after all, those are games that Virginia Tech is favored in and needs to win for its stock to remain the same.

Virginia Tech's clash against Miami is thus likely a must-win because against North Carolina and Virginia, those opportunities are likely closed, barring the Hokies making a surprise run.

Virginia Tech is 5-34 (3-26 in ACC, 1-9 televised) against the Tar Heels all-time on the road and is 1-9 in the Dean E. Smith Center, with its lone triumph being an 81-80 overtime upset over then-No. 4 UNC.

HokieSports Stats Database

Against Virginia, the Hokies are 5-13 in John Paul Jones Arena and have only defeated the Cavaliers twice in the past 10 years: 2017-2018 (61-60, overtime) and last year, 2024-25 (75-74). Interestingly, Virginia Tech has never won a game by more than five in JPJ.

The Hokies have a 2-5 record against a ranked UVA team on the Cavaliers' home turf, with that 2017-18 win and a 47-45 victory in 2011-12 their lone triumphs.

With North Carolina and Virginia thus likely losses, Virginia Tech needs to claim tomorrow's tilt with Miami to avoid being stuck in place when the ACC Tournament approaches.

The Hokies' Potentially Favorable Road In The ACC Tournament?

Even still, if the Hokies slot in either as the eighth or the ninth seed in this year's ACC Tournament, that likely books them a quarterfinals slot with No. 3 Duke, which held Tech to a season-low 58 points in their matchup on Jan. 31. The Hokies' most favorable matchup in the ACC Tournament could work out as such:

Opening round: Wake Forest, California, Syracuse, etc.
Second round: SMU (doable), North Carolina? (depending on Caleb Wilson's status), California (if it is not in the opening round), Syracuse (ditto)
Quarterfinals: Virginia, Clemson

The Hokies fought tooth-and-nail with the Mustangs and came apart at the end, falling 77-76 on SMU's buzzer beater. For the quarterfinals, Virginia Tech boasts wins over both the Cavaliers and the Tigers.

Virginia has been torrid since, though, and has won 11 of its last 12, with its lone loss being a 85-80 defeat at the hands of then-No. 22 North Carolina. The Cavaliers did Virginia Tech a favor by taking down Ohio State, 70-66, on Feb. 14 in Nashville.

The Buckeyes currently are the second team out of the tournament on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's projected field. In comparison, Virginia Tech is now the sixth team out, clocking in as the No. 74 seed as of this morning.

Back to the ACC: Virginia Tech can go through a bracket where it exclusively plays teams that it either defeated or played to the final possession into a possible semifinals berth. The likelihood of that happening is hard to tell, especially given: a) the volatilty of the Hokies as of late and b) what the bracket itself actually ends up shaping out to be.

For what it's worth, I don't consider the Hokies' hopes as done and dusted. Virginia Tech still has a chance but it undoubtedly has been put behind the 8-ball and I'd peg its chances at about 25% of making the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia Tech's contest against Miami comes on Tuesday as an 8 p.m. tip, with the contest being broadcast on the ACC Network.