KenPom Final Score Prediction for Viginia Tech vs. No. 18 North Carolina
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Virginia Tech men's basketball embarks on its penultimate road contest of the 2025-26 regular seeason tomorrow, challenging No. 18 North Carolina.
a lot to play for on Saturday 😤
— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 27, 2026
🤝 @CarilionClinic pic.twitter.com/kCzPOdjNCy
Prior to the Hokies' 82-63 victory over Wake Forest, Virginia Tech had lost four of its previous five.
Pomeroy's metrics predict an 80-71 final score in favor of North Carolina and allot the Hokies a 21% win probability of winning in Chapel Hill tomorrow evening.
North Carolina enters the contest, boasting a 13.6% turnover rate, the 14th-lowest total in Division I. However, it has forced opponents into just a 13.8% turnover rate (No. 342 in D-I).
The Hokies and Tar Heels are both potent on defense — albeit in different areas. North Carolina's defensive clip inside the arc stands at 45.4%, 13th-best in D-I; meanwhile, Virginia Tech's 30.2% clip allowed from deep is 19th-best in the nation.
In league play, North Carolina's 38.8% clip from deep allowed is the worst such total in the ACC. In contrast, however, Virginia Tech's 49.8% two-point clip in conference play stands at a drab No. 14 in the league.
Virginia Tech guard Tyler Johnson will presumably be available for the first time since Dec. 21 vs. Elon. Johnson sustained an ankle injury in overtime vs. the Phoenix and has not played since, missing the last 15 games. In the 13 games he played, Johnson averaged 9.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists a game.
The ACC initial availability report also confirmed that North Carolina freshman forward Caleb Wilson will officially be out for tomorrow's tilt. The likely 2026 NBA Draft lottery pick has averaged 19.8 points (No. 35 in D-1) and 9.4 rebounds (No. 22), while shooting 57.8% (No. 38) from the field.
In Wilson's absence, North Carolina has gone 3-1, with victories over Pittsburgh (79-65), Syracuse (77-64) and then-No. 24 Louisville (77-74). The Tar Heels' lone loss was a 82-58 blowout defeat at the hands of NC State on Feb. 17.
"Sometimes when a guy goes down, other guys elevate," said Virginia Tech head coach Mike Young on this week's Tech Talk Live show. "We’ve seen that ourselves. They’ve gotten better guard play without Wilson. They’ve had guys step up. We’ve got our hands full.
"We’re looking forward to getting down there. We’ve had a couple of really good days of practice. Our team is excited. We’ve got a lot on the line. ... They’re playing faster without him. They really come at you in transition. If they’re scoring in transition, you’re putting your back against the wall. You have to play good offense. You can’t turn it over. You can’t take bad shots."
Virginia Tech's contest with the No. 16 Tar Heels will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET; coverage will be available on ESPN2.
Thomas is a sophomore at Virginia Tech majoring in multimedia journalism with a minor in creative writing. He currently works with Collegiate Times, Virginia Tech's student-run newspaper, as a staff writer for its sports section. In addition, he also writes for 3304 Sports as a staff writer and on-air talent, as well as Aspiring Journalists at Virginia Tech as a curator. You can find him on X: @thomashughes_05.
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