Predicting Virginia Tech's Full NCAA Tournament Path: Can the Hokies Make a Run?

The Hokies are in!

Virginia Tech (23-9, 12-6) will be the No. 9 seed in the Fort Worth Region 3, matching up with No. 8 seed Oregon (22-12, 8-10 Big Ten) on Friday, March 20 in Austin, Texas.

This appearance will mark the program’s 14th NCAA Tournament berth overall and its first since 2024.

Tech hit several milestones during the season, finishing tied for fifth in the ACC with a 12-6 record and posting 12 or more conference wins for the fourth time in program history. The program also celebrated its 500th win inside Cassell Coliseum. At the helm, Megan Duffy becomes the fifth head coach to take the Hokies to the NCAA Tournament.

In addition to team milestones, several individuals made headlines. Forward Carys Baker and guard Carleigh Wenzel were both named to the All-ACC Second Team by the league’s coaches. Together, Baker and Wenzel accounted for 44 percent of Virginia Tech’s total offensive production in league games while contributing 77.4 percent of the Hokies’ three-pointers.

Let's take a look at the Hokies path.

Round One: vs (8) Oregon

This is going to be a close matchup and one that will be tough for the Hokies to win. If it is close, Oregon is very familiar with playing in and winning close game

Oregon has been no stranger to close games this season. The Ducks have played 10 games that have been decided by five points or less after its 73-68 win over Maryland on Thursday. Oregon has played 15 “clutch games” - games that are within five points with five minutes or less to play - this season, including six of its last seven games. Since the start of last season Oregon has played 29 clutch games, winning 16 of them. After a 80-76 comeback win over Nebraska on Feb. 19, UO has produced three double-digit comeback wins, equaling the most in a season under 12th-year head coach Kelly Graves.

However, I think the combo of Wenzel and Baker is going to pull the Hokies through.

Round Two: vs (1) Texas

This is going to be a massive, massive, massive challenge. Texas is one of the favorites to win the tournament and will be the best team that Virginia Tech has seen.

This is the second time in program history Texas has earned a No. 1 seed in three straight seasons. The Longhorns have recorded 30 or more wins in 2023-24, 2024-25 and now in 2025-26. Texas is 99-12 since the start of the 2023-24 season.

In the 2025-26 season the Longhorns have a 31-3 overall record and lead the country with 14 wins over ranked opponents. Texas has four wins over top-five teams.

Madison Booker is the name to know and she led Texas to the SEC Tournament Championship and was named the MVP of the tournament. For the SEC Tournament, Booker averaged 20 points per game, 8.3 rebounds per game and shot 61.4 percent from the field. She also tallied 13 assists, six steals and three blocks. Booker has been named a First Team All-American this season by USA Today Sports and The Athletic.

Booker is averaging career-highs in points (18.9), rebounds (6.5) steals (2.3) and field goal percentage (51.6) this season. Booker has raised her field goal percentage six points from last season. Booker has 14 games of 20 or more points this season and 42 for her career. Booker, in her junior season has already climbed to sixth on the Texas career scoring list with 1,873 points.

Booker is the only player in Texas women's basketball history to reach 1,800 points, 600 rebounds and 400 assists. In the SEC Tournament semifinal win over Ole Miss, Booker scored a career-high 31 points and added 11 rebounds and five assists. Over the summer, Booker earned her fourth gold medal with USA Basketball as Team USA won the 2025 FIBA Women's Americup in Santiago, Chile.

Virginia Tech has had an impressive season, but I don't think they will be able to make it past the Longhorns and their run in the NCAA Tournament will be short lived.