Biggest Overreaction I Think Virginia Tech Fans Should Avoid

For James Franklin and Virginia Tech, editor Thomas Hughes believes bowl eligibility should be the reasonable Year 1 floor.

Virginia Tech Athletics

Virginia Tech football is coming off a 3-9 season that led to Brent Pry's dismissal (and subsequent re-introduction as a defensive coordinator), replaced him with former Penn State head coach James Franklin and brought in a number of pieces that should make this team considerably more competitive. The expectations are different now, and for good reason.

But I do think there is one overreaction Virginia Tech fans should avoid as the season gets underway: turning this season into a binary discussion between 10-2 and 5-7.

Those are certainly possible outcomes. College football is unpredictable, and Virginia Tech's schedule has enough difficult games to make a wide range of results possible. However, I think that there is a much more reasonable baseline for what should be expected from Franklin in Year 1.

That baseline, in my opinion, is bowl eligibility.

Franklin's track record makes that a pretty reasonable expectation. Before his final season at Penn State, Franklin had not failed to take one of his teams to a bowl-eligible season during his head-coaching career, with the obvious exception of the COVID-impacted 2020 season. The 2025 season, which ultimately led to his firing, was the other major outlier; Penn State started 3-3, losing three straight before Franklin was canned. The Nittany Lions eventually finished 7-6 and won the Pinstripe Bowl over Clemson. Franklin's career has overwhelmingly been defined by getting his programs to a competitive level and keeping them there.

That's part of the reason Virginia Tech hired him in the first place.

The Hokies brought Franklin in because they believe his history at Penn State, Vanderbilt and elsewhere gives him a chance to stabilize a program that badly needs it. Expecting Franklin to at least get Virginia Tech back to the postseason in Year 1 is much more reasonable and a roadmap that is attainable.

And the schedule gives him a legitimate opportunity to do that.

Virginia Tech opens the season with VMI and Old Dominion at Lane Stadium before traveling to Maryland. Boston College then comes to Blacksburg before the Hokies face Pitt and travel to California. Georgia Tech follows at home before Virginia Tech gets its first matchup with Clemson. After the bye week, the Hokies face SMU and Miami on the road, with Stanford and Virginia rounding out the regular season.

There are some extremely difficult games in there. Clemson, Miami and SMU could all be major challenges, while the trip to California isn't exactly an easy road game. But Virginia Tech doesn't need to win those games to get to six victories. There are enough opportunities throughout the schedule for Franklin to get his team into a bowl without having to pull off a series of major upsets.

That's why I don't think a 6-6 season should automatically be viewed as a disappointment, especially given that Virginia Tech is integrating over 50 newcomers into its 2026 roster.

Would it be more exciting if Virginia Tech won eight or nine games? Absolutely. If the Hokies somehow enter November with a realistic path to 10 wins, then the conversation changes entirely. Franklin would have exceeded virtually every reasonable expectation for his first season, and the excitement around the program would be enormous.

But there is a big difference between saying nine or 10 wins would be a fantastic outcome and saying anything short of nine wins would be a disappointment. The latter sets an unreasonable standard for a first-year head coach taking over a team that went 3-9 the year before.

There will inevitably be some growing pains. The offense is going to look different under Franklin and his staff. Grunkemeyer will be operating in a new system, and it will likely take time for him to adjust. Players who were recruited under a completely different regime are now being asked to adjust to new expectations, terminology and methods. Even if the roster is significantly better, that doesn't mean everything is going to click immediately.

Maybe Virginia Tech starts 5-1 and has everyone in Blacksburg dreaming about an ACC Championship Game appearance. Maybe the Hokies struggle early and have to fight their way to six wins. Maybe they end up somewhere in the middle, finishing 7-5 or 8-4 and heading into a bowl game with solid, OK momentum.

All of those scenarios would tell us something different about Franklin's first season.

There is also a tendency in college football to look at a coach's first season as a referendum on the entire tenure. That's particularly dangerous here. Franklin wasn't hired to fix Virginia Tech for one season. He was hired to build the program back into something that can compete consistently in the ACC.

The 2026 season is the first step in that process.

If Virginia Tech wins six games and makes a bowl, Franklin will have accomplished the most basic objective: getting the Hokies back into the postseason one year after they finished 3-9. If they win seven or eight, even better. If they win nine or 10, then Franklin will have accomplished something well beyond the reasonable expectations for Year 1.