Bowl Projections For Virginia Tech Football After Week 3 Win Over Maryland
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The path I laid out two weeks ago never had Maryland in it. Virginia Tech beat the Terrapins 35-26 anyway, and that one game is the difference between a projection and a ceiling.
The Hokies are 3-0 for the first time since 2017, and they drew 46 points in Sunday's AP poll, seventh among teams outside the top 25 and up from 11 a week ago.
Where the board sits
Sports Illustrated's Bryan Fischer moved Virginia Tech up from the Pinstripe Bowl to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 28, against Utah. CBS Sports' Brad Crawford held at the Gator Bowl, now against Texas A&M. Athlon's Steven Lassan didn't budge, keeping the Hokies in Charlotte against Iowa on Dec. 26. ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have not changed their picks. A week ago, Bonagura had the Sun Bowl and Schlabach the Pinstripe against Nebraska.
Crawford's answer didn't change but his reasoning did. Last week he sent Miami and SMU to the playoff and handed the Pop-Tarts Bowl to Louisville. Now Miami is his only ACC playoff team, SMU takes Orlando and Virginia Tech gets Jacksonville as the second ACC selection outside the field.
My pick a week ago was the Pinstripe Bowl.
What Saturday actually told us
Two droughts ended on one night. Virginia Tech hadn't beaten a non-conference Power Four opponent since Sept. 3, 2017, a 15-game skid, and Maryland hadn't lost a non-conference game in 20 tries, the longest active streak in the FBS.
Ethan Grunkemeyer went 31-of-39 for 314 yards and three touchdowns and ran in a fourth from 18 yards out. It was the second straight 300-yard game for him, something no Virginia Tech quarterback had done since Ryan Willis in 2018.
Although the Hokies won, it was by no means a perfect victory. Tech scored on five of its first six possessions and converted eight of nine third downs in the first half, then went two of seven after the break. A 21-point lead entering the fourth quarter finished as a nine-point win, and the only reason it wasn't tighter is that Maryland missed two 2-point tries. The pass rush that led the country with 12 sacks through two games got two.
The league thinned out fast. Eight ACC teams were unbeaten a week ago. Four are now, and Virginia Tech is one of them, with Miami, Pitt and Duke. Louisville beat SMU 41-31 and jumped to No. 16, SMU slid to No. 22, and Virginia lost to West Virginia 38-27 and fell out of the poll entirely. Clemson beat North Carolina 28-20, which makes Oct. 24 in Death Valley look more difficult than it did Friday.
Record prediction: 9-3
The old math was four safe wins in VMI, Old Dominion, Boston College and Stanford, plus Cal and Georgia Tech, plus one of Clemson or Pitt, plus Virginia at home. Maryland was extra. Run the same path with the same assumptions and it lands on 9-3.
None of that is banked. The ninth win still has to come out of three games: Pitt on Oct. 2, Clemson on Oct. 24 or SMU on Nov. 6. Pitt is 3-0. SMU is ranked. Miss all three and this is the same 8-4 team it was Friday morning.
The Eagles are 2-1 with wins over Rutgers and Maine. Both wins were one-score games.
My bowl projection: Gator Bowl
Last week I wrote that the ceiling at 9-3 was the Gator. The projection caught up to the ceiling, so the pick goes with it.
The Pop-Tarts Bowl takes the top ACC team outside the playoff and the Gator generally takes the next. Miami at No. 6 is the likeliest ACC playoff team, which clears the first seat. The second one comes down to Louisville, Pitt, SMU, Duke and Virginia Tech.
Two of those are on the schedule. Pitt visits Lane Stadium on Oct. 2 and the Hokies go to Dallas on Nov. 6, so Virginia Tech settles those comparisons on the field. Louisville and Duke it never sees, which means the only way past them is a better record.
The pick: Gator Bowl, Dec. 30. Ceiling at 10-2 is the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Floor at 7-5 is the Pinstripe or the Sun.
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James Duncan serves as a staff writer for Virginia Tech On SI, covering football, men’s and women’s basketball and recruiting. He is a 2026 Virginia Tech graduate, having majored in Sports Media and Analytics with a minor in Professional and Technical Writing. Duncan previously covered the Washington Commanders as a reporter for The Lead, where he reported on the team throughout an offseason.