ESPN's Latest FPI Rankings Unveiled: Where Did The Hokies Land?

According to the FPI model, Tech has a 94.7% chance to accumulate six wins, 8.9% odds of winning the ACC title and 10.4% odds of reaching the College Football Playoff.

Aug 31, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry looks on against Vanderbilt. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

ESPN released the latest installment of its Football Power Index (FPI) yesterday; the Hokies placed No. 31 on the board. According to the FPI model, Tech has a 94.7% chance to accumulate six wins, 8.9% odds of winning the ACC title and 10.4% odds of reaching the College Football Playoff.

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Here's how the full ACC order falls out with national rank and projected win-loss record in parentheses:

No. 1 - Clemson Tigers: 13.7 FPI (No. 16, 9-2.-3.3)

No. 2 - Miami Hurricanes: 13.6 FPI (No. 17, 9.2-3.3)

No. 3 - SMU Mustangs: 11.6 FPI (No. 19, 8.9-3.4)

No. 4 - Virginia Tech Hokies: 8.1 FPI (No. 31, 8.1-4.2)

No. 5 - Louisville Cardinals: 6.7 FPI (No. 38, 7.3-4.7)

No. 6 - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 6.7 FPI (No. 39, 7.3-4.8)

No. 7 - Duke Blue Devils: 4.7 FPI (No. 47, 7.1-5.0)

No. 8 - Boston College Eagles: 2.8 FPI (No. 55, 5.9-6.2)

No. 9 - Pittsburgh Panthers: 2.0 FPI (No. 57, 5.9-6.1)

No. 10 - NC State Wolfpack: 2.0 FPI (No. 58, 6.1-5.9)

No. 11 - North Carolina Tar Heels: 1.3 FPI (No. 59, 6.3-5.7)

No. 12 - Syracuse Orange: 0.6 FPI (No. 63, 4.5-7.5)

No. 13 - Florida State Seminoles: 0.3 FPI (No. 65, 5.3-6.7)

No. 14 - Stanford Cardinal: 0.1 FPI (No. 67, 5.1-7.0)

No. 15 - Virginia Cavaliers: -0.5 FPI (No. 68, 6.4-5.7)

No. 16 - California Golden Bears: -0.5 FPI (No. 69, 5.6-6.4)

No. 17 - Wake Forest Demon Deacons: -5.5 FPI (No. 89, 4.8-7.2)

It's important to note that the FPI sorts the power index by relative team strength rather than by projected win-loss record. This explains why Virginia has the eighth-highest projected win-loss percentage in the ACC but sits at No. 68 nationally due to its relatively lacking strength of schedule.

Here's the explanation of what FPI is, courtesy of ESPN:

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes...

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections...

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines."

Tech placed six spots higher than its end-of-season ranking in 2024, which was No. 37 and fifth in the ACC.