Ranking Every Virginia Tech Football Game By Confidence Level

Virginia Tech faces a challenging schedule in James Franklin's first season, what should their confidence level be heading into each game?

BLACKSBURG, Va. — Bryce Baker in the huddle with the Virginia Tech offense in fall camp. | Virginia Tech Athletic

BLACKSBURG, Va. — Sitting just two days away from college football's opening kick and nine days from Virginia Tech's season-opening game against VMI, we've learned just about everything that we can about this team, other than who will start at quarterback — at least officially. It's all but official that the starter will be Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Starting off the season, the Hokies host VMI and Old Dominion in back-to-back weeks before travelling north, where they will play Maryland and Boston College on the road. Boston College is how they start conference play; following that up, the Hokies will host Pitt on Friday night before travelling to Cal Berkeley, then hosting Georgia Tech and travelling to Clemson before going into a bye week.

Coming out of the bye week, the Hokies travel to SMU to play on Friday night, then turn around for a home matchup against the Stanford Cardinal. They will look to use that game to get right and tune up before traveling to Miami and hosting UVa to end the regular season.

They have a tough schedule, facing off against some of the conference's top opponents on the road. Here is my tier-style ranking of how confident I am that the Hokies will win each game.

Tier One: Locks

VMI, Old Dominion, and Stanford are the three lock wins that I see from this schedule. The Hokies should look to start off the season with two wins against non-power-four opponents. They are favored by 50.5 against VMI and will likely be favored by about 20 against Old Dominion. Stanford is picked to finish at the bottom of the conference, and the Hokies will have a long week heading into the game.

Tier Two: Should Win

Cal, Boston College, and Maryland are all games that the Hokies should win. Cal is a good team, but the Hokies have a relatively light schedule as they turn towards Berkeley, where Cal will host Clemson and play a CFP-hopeful UNLV on the road in the two weeks before hosting the Hokies.

The only difference between Boston College being in the lock tier and this one — the Hokies play BC on the road, where the Hokies have dropped two of their last three contests in Chestnut Hill. Maryland is between toss-up and should-win, but they've seen recent injuries to key players, which ultimately makes the difference in putting them in the should-win-category.

Tier Three: Toss Up

Pitt, Georgia Tech, and UVA are all toss-up games for the Hokies. The good news? All three of these games are at home, and the Hokies will likely be favored in all three of them — at least if they were played today. In this stretch, I expect that the Hokies should take at least two, with the most likely win coming against UVa, just based on the history of the series between the two.

Pitt and Georgia Tech will likely be split. Georgia Tech isn't the same team they were last year, but the Hokies will be playing their seventh game in as many weeks, coming off a travel week to Cal while also having to prepare for another week of travel to Clemson.

Tier Four: Big Upsets

Miami and SMU are both teams that would be big upsets for the Hokies, but I don't see either as impossible. After all, the Hokies were a questionable review away from beating Miami on the road two seasons ago, and they put up a couple of punches in Lane Stadium last season, having the ball down by two scores in the fourth quarter before fumbling.

SMU is another tough one. The Hokies will travel halfway across the country, though they will be coming off a bye week. SMU has not lost an ACC game at home, and they are picked to finish near the top of the conference in 2026, returning long-time starter Kevin Jennings, who has playoff experience.

Tier Five: Big Stretch

Clemson is the only game I am putting in this group. While Miami and SMU are more talented, the schedule sets up very poorly for the Hokies going into Memorial Stadium. The Hokies will be going into their eighth game in as many weeks. Clemson will face Miami to start the month before they will have a bye week and then a matchup against Charleston Southern, giving them — effectively — a three-week period to prepare for the Hokies.

Overall, the Hokies have a tough schedule. I think they lose each game in the final two tiers, along with a game in the toss-up tier, giving them an 8-4 record, though they will have a strong change to push to 9-3 or fall to 7-5.