SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-California Final Score

Who does the SP+ metric predict to win Friday's showdown in Blacksburg?

Oct 11, 2025; Atlanta, Ga.; Georgia Tech tight end Josh Beetham (17) is tackled by Virginia Tech safety Sheldon Robinson (14) and linebacker Caleb Woodson (20). | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 9. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate.

WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS

OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5

Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.https://t.co/A8CM2IKAX1 pic.twitter.com/7h9j3KpOQQ

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 19, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

California (5-2, 2-1 ACC) jumped up three spots to No. 75 after defeating North Carolina, 21-18, on Saturday. Its offense ranks No. 97 with a score of 23.0, its defense is No. 59 with a tally of 25.3 and its special teams ranks No. 75 with a 0.0 score. The Golden bears have a cumulative total of -2.3. [Editor's note: A higher total number is better on offense; a lower total number is better on defense.]

Virginia Tech (2-5, 1-2) has a cumulative total of -5.7 and sits at No. 91, having dropped five spots from No. 86 despite being on its bye week. The Hokies have dropped 13 spots since their initial ranking entering the Georgia Tech game (No. 78). The Hokies' offense ranks at No. 91 (down eight spots from Week 7) with a tally of 23.6, its defense sits at No. 88 (down nine) with a score of 29.6 and its special teams ranks at No. 24 (down two) with a tally of 0.2.

Connelly's projections predict a 26-25 triumph for California, give the Hokies a 48% chance of claiming the victory and favor the Golden Bears by 0.9 points. Connelly's over/under is set at 49.5; his pick is over and his against-the-spread pick is California.

Connelly's SP+ margin is contrary to ESPN BET's, which currently lists the Hokies as 3.5-point favorites.

Virginia Tech will contest the Golden Bears on Friday, Oct. 24 at 7:30 p.m., with viewing available on ESPN.

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