SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech Final Score

Who does the SP+ metric predict to win Saturday's showdown in Atlanta?

Oct 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech kicker John Love (25) attempts a field goal. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 7. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate.

SP+ is updated! You'll never guess whose rating fell the most this week! (That's a lie, you'll definitely guess it. #WeAre)https://t.co/xiTg4qXCwH

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 5, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0) vaulted up two spots to No. 35 despite not playing on Saturday. Its offense ranks No. 27 with a tally of 32.5, its defense is No. 52 with a score of 21.3 and its special teams is No. 36 with a score of 0.1. The Yellow Jackets have a cumulative total of 11.4. [Editor's note: a higher number is better on offense, while a lower number is better on defense.]

Virginia Tech (2-4, 1-1 ACC) has a cumulative -2.4 and sits at No. 78 in the FBS, gaining one spot despite its one-score loss to Wake Forest. The Hokies' offense ranks No. 83 (down two spots) with a score of 22.4, its defense is at No. 79 (up two spots) with a score of 25.1 and its special teams sits at No. 22 (up four spots) with a tally of 0.2.

Connelly's projections predict a 33-17 triumph for Virginia Tech, give the Hokies a 15% chance of claiming the victory and favor Georgia Tech by 16.3 points. Connelly's over/under is set at 55.5; his pick is under and his against the spread pick is Georgia Tech.

Connelly's SP+ margin for Saturday's showdown is close to ESPN BET's, which currently list the Hokies as 14.5-point pups.

Virginia Tech will contest the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, Oct. 11 at 3:30 p.m. ET, with viewing available on the ACC Network.

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