SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Louisville Final Score

Who does the SP+ metric predict to win Saturday's showdown in Blacksburg?

Oct 24, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs for a touchdown against California. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 10. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate.

WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS

Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7

LOTS of ranked teams on the road...https://t.co/bffNKIvOHb pic.twitter.com/1fvr0Nd59t

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 26, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Louisville (6-1, 3-1 ACC) remained at No. 24 following its 38-24 win over Boston College. The Cardinals' offense ranks No. 32 with a score of 33.8, its defense is No. 28 with a tally of 19.8 and its special teams ranks No. 66 with a 0.0 score. The Cardinals have a cumulative total of 14.0. [Editor's note: A higher total number is better on offense; a lower total number is better on defense.]

Virginia Tech (3-5, 2-2 ACC) has a cumulative total of -3.8 and sits at No. 84, having jumped seven spots from No. 91 after its double-overtime win over California. The Hokies' offense ranks at No. 78 (up 13 spots from Week 9) with a tally of 25.6, its defense sits at No. 88 (no change in ranking) with a score of 29.5 and its special teams ranks at No. 58 (down 34 spots) with a tally of 0.1.

Connelly's projections predict a 35-19 victory for Louisville, give the Hokies a 17% chance of claiming the victory and favor the Cardinals by 15.3 points. Connelly's over/under is set at 53.5; his pick is over and his against-the-spread pick is Louisville.

Connelly's SP+ margin is contrary to ESPN BET's, which currently lists the Hokies as 10.5-point pups.

Virginia Tech will take on the Cardinals on Saturday, Nov. 1 at 3:00 p.m. ET, with viewing available on the CW.

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