Virginia Tech On SI Q&A Responses: August 11-17, 2025

Virginia Tech On SI lead editor Thomas Hughes answers a pair of questions put forward over this past week.

Aug 31, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry looks on against Vanderbilt. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Question No. 1: What metrics can be used to see the difference in talent level comparing this years team to last years team? Is this year's team more or less talented and by how much of a gap if so? (Robert Elsaid, X)

Bill Connelly's returning projection is one of the stats that I use and look at periodically. The defense retains 58% of its production, which is 11% more than the offense. The Hokies' defense was not bad by the eye test last year; it averaged 22.8 points per game allowed last year in conference play, which was third in ACC. Part of that stat is inflated by the six-point effort from Georgia Tech last October and removing that pushes the total to 25 points per game but still keeps them in the No. 4-No. 6 range. Tech ranked No. 1 in interceptions, No. 5 in fumbles forced and No. 2 in fumbles recovered. All the stats I referenced are from conference play only, which removes some outliers like the Marshall and Old Dominion games.

On the offensive front, the tailbacks won't individually be able to recreate Tuten's numbers, down to individual snap count, but combined, it should be a stronger room and one that's more equipped to survive injuries (example Clemson, where Tuten was the only back to log carries, doing so for four carries and zero net yards). There's less need for a workhorse, since Stewart has proven production from his time at Bowling Green and Bennett with Coastal Carolina. Hawkins is an unknown, having come from Division II ball, but based on what I've heard from Pry and Montgomery in pressers, there's optimism surrounding him.

Better continuity at QB helps; Drones isn’t exactly injury-prone (his injuries pre-Syracuse were exacerbated by Clemson contest), but without his legs, he’s less of a separator. Still, he’s capable enough in the pocket. Tech struggled last year to maintain drives because of an overreliance on the team's top stars. This year, a more versatile offense, especially in the backfield, should create more consistent, sustained drives.

Last thing: SP+ is another tool I've used in the past. Tech ranked No. 24 at the end of the regular season last year despite being 6-6 (and No. 30 post-Minnesota). They could've been 10-2 (or even 11-1) if not for a quartet of mistakes and issues (Drones' cramping and slow start vs. Vanderbilt, late interception vs. Rutgers, fake FG miscue at Miami, missed field goal opportunity vs. Syracuse, defensive back woes at Duke). Two games stand out as ones where it would've taken more than just a couple plays for the Hokies to beat their opponents: Clemson and Minnesota.

This year, Tech ranks No. 42 on the SP+ metric, around where Rutgers, Syracuse and Duke were last year. Duke went 9-4 and Syracuse finished at 10-3, while Rutgers went 7-6 in the same conference that produced the national champion. FPI is more favorable to the Hokies, projecting them at No. 31.

My personal take is a 7-5 or 8-4 season based on those notes; it appears to be a weaker ceiling by a significant margin but a higher floor, barring major injuries.

Question No. 2: How many games is Tech going to win this year? (kimby01 via Discord)

I somewhat answered this at the end of Question No. 1, but I'll give my ceiling and floor here. I would not be surprised if this squad goes 8-4 and Pry stays around for Year 5; on the flip side, if Tech goes 6-6 or 5-7, that's in line for what's been seen under the Pry era.

With the hires of Philip Montgomery and Sam Siefkes to anchor the ship, I think that the floor is significantly raised, particularly for the defense. Pry referenced "situational football" during media day and pointed to Siefkes' experience with the NFL. The important thing is to be proactive rather than reactive; if Tech is the latter, it'll usually be one step behind the eight-ball.

In terms of preparation, there's still work to do on ironing out the rotating advantage between defense and offense, which Pry said flips on occasion from session to session. That back-and-forth in camp isn’t inherently a red flag; most competitive teams see one side of the ball get the upper hand on a given day. The key is whether Virginia Tech can turn those alternating wins into complementary football once the season begins. Too often last fall, the defense would make a stand only for the offense to stall, or the offense would hit stride while the defense leaked big plays. However, what should be improved depth across the roster and continuity at quarterback should help close that gap.