What Does ESPN's FPI Predict for Virginia Tech’s Remaining 2025 Games After Wofford Win?

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 5, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 4 of the College Football season📈📉 https://t.co/NJ69Jxw0IR pic.twitter.com/JcAPBh82hv
— On3 (@On3sports) September 21, 2025

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 70 on the projected chart, three spots above last week's No. 73 ranking. with their projected record now sitting at 3.8-8.2. At the time of writing, which is Wednesday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 7.9% odds of claiming six wins, 0.1% odds of winning the ACC title, and 0% odds of qualifying for the College Football] Playoff and making for the National Championship game. The Hokies now rank No. 13 in the ACC, ahead of California (No. 77), Stanford (No. 79), North Carolina (No. 86) and Wake Forest (No. 96).

Tech's Week 4 victory came against Wofford, which is not on the FPI as the FPI only accounts for schools in the FBS.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Game 5, at NC State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 36.2% chance to win (up 4.8%)

The Wolfpack are guided by second-year starting quarterback CJ Bailey, who has quickly emerged as the centerpiece of their offense. Bailey has shown steady growth since taking over the reins last fall, developing into a more confident passer while maintaining the mobility that makes him a dual threat. His ability to extend plays with his legs and deliver accurate throws under pressure has given NC State a dynamic option behind center.

Through four weeks, Bailey ranks No. 21 in the nation in QB rating. This contest is one that should go the Wolfpack's way, although inexperience under center could tilt it the Hokies' way if their signal-caller, Kyron Drones, is efficient.

FPI record: 1-4, 0-1 ACC

Game 6, vs. Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 77.7% chance to win (up 0.9%)

This profiles as the easiest contest remaining on the Hokies' 2025 slate; under center, Wake Forest's Robby Ashford has been lackluster, throwing for one touchdown, three picks and tallying 697 yards through a trio of contests.

Although Demon Deacons tailback Demond Claiborne is as potent as ever, he's only tallied 25 carries, so far. However, he's already amassed four touchdowns and should he be rocking and rolling next Saturday, this could be a contest that slips out of Tech's reach.

FPI record: 2-4, 1-1 ACC

Game 7, at No. 16 Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 18.5% chance to win (up 1.5%)

The Yellow Jackets are paced by quarterback Haynes King, whose combination of arm strength and mobility has kept opposing defenses on their heels. King has already proven capable of stretching the field vertically while also creating chunk plays on the ground when protection breaks down. With a balanced attack and improving confidence under head coach Brent Key, Georgia Tech presents a daunting challenge. Even when King is out, redshirt freshman Aaron Philo has shown flashes and could be more than capable of restraining the Hokies. The numbers suggest that this is a very likely setback for Virginia Tech.

FPI record: 2-5, 1-2 ACC

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 72.4% chance to win (up 16.7%)

The Hokies' contest against California is the lone billing on their schedule that sees a five-point or more increase. The Golden Bears were eviscerated by San Diego State, 34-0, and appeared outmatched and outclassed in all facets of the game. Although Virginia Tech is by no means secure here, the road to a Friday night victory appears to have gone somewhat easier with California's recent stumble. On the FPI, this remains the Hokies' last projected victory of the 2025 season.

FPI record: 3-5, 2-2 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 32.8% chance to win (down 1.3%)

Louisville represents another difficult test for the Hokies, powered by a talented roster that includes standout tailback Isaac Brown. Brown’s speed and explosiveness give the Cardinals a reliable playmaker who can flip field position in an instant. Combined with a experienced quarterback in Miller Moss and a defense that thrives on forcing mistakes, Louisville has the tools to control the flow of the game. Virginia Tech will need to limit Brown’s impact to stay competitive, but the talent gap appears significant and FPI projects that the Hokies will suffer their first of four straight losses in this projected FPI season.

FPI record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at No. 8 Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 13.5% chance to win (down 3.9%)

It's been a remarkable preseason shift for the Seminoles; after being projected to be around a .500 team, No. 8 Florida State has exploded out of the gates. The Seminoles are led by Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos, who ranks third in the nation in QB rating, only behind USC's Jayden Maiava and Washington's Demond Williams Jr.

With that, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Hokies walk out of their Tallahassee tilt victorious in a year where Florida State appears to be extremely potent.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 2 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 12.5% chance to win (down 0.5%)

The Hurricanes currently rank only behind defending national champions Ohio State on the AP poll and anchored by a rejuvenated Carson Beck under center, are a difficult squad for anyone to stop. For a Hokies program in flux, this is unlikely to produce the revenge victory that some fans may be craving for.

Miami has defeated three quality foes thus far — Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida — and with Clemson's struggles to open the 2025 campaign, it could be the Hurricanes that capture this year's ACC crown.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 20.5% chance to win (down 5.7%)

Virginia is on a roll right now; quarterback Chandler Morris, receiver Trell Harris and offensive lineman McKale Boley were all named ACC Players of the Week for Week 4 at their respective positions.

Morris tallied the fourth-highest QB rating (in the nation last week, throwng for 380 passing yards and a quartet of touchdowns. Harris tallied 145 receiving yards on four catches. Three of those receptions went to the house.

Although historical precedence has leaned heavily towards Virginia Tech in this rivalry, this could be a rare instance in which the Cavaliers possess the upper hand and emerge victorious over the Hokies.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC