What's ESPN's FPI's Game-by-Game Predictions for Virginia Tech After Week 7 Loss to Georgia Tech?

The Hokies now sit at 2-5 through seven weeks of football.

Oct 11, 2025; Atlanta, Ga. Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs past Georgia Tech defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg (99). | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 8, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 7 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/gPIWuGIQfq pic.twitter.com/QGigiLxbzK

— On3 (@On3sports) October 12, 2025

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 70 on the FPI, two spots below last week's No. 68 ranking. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 3.5-8.5 and the squad now ranks No. 12 in the ACC, one spot below last week. At the time or writing, which is Monday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 1.3% odds of claiming at least six wins and 0% odds of winning the ACC title or qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

According to FPI, Virginia Tech's remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 35, fourth-highest in the ACC, only behind Syracuse (No. 27), Stanford (No. 33) and Pittsburgh (No. 34). The Hokies have one game remaining against a squad ranked lower on the FPI metric: Cal (No. 81) on Oct. 24.

Tech's Week 7 defeat came at the hands of Georgia Tech, who entered the contest ranked at No. 42 and jumped up seven spots this week after beating the Hokies.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Tech's current record: 2-5, 1-2 ACC
Wins: Wofford (FCS) (38-6), NC State (23-21)
Losses: then-No. 13 South Carolina (24-11), Vanderbilt (44-20), Old Dominion (45-26), Wake Forest (30-23), then-No. 13 Georgia Tech (35-20)

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 73.9% chance to win (down 0.3%)

The Hokies’ outlook hasn’t changed much heading into the matchup. California remains a solid but inconsistent opponent, a team with evident talent that hasn’t yet found its rhythm. The Golden Bears can challenge teams when they click, but their lapses have been costly. For Virginia Tech, this still feels like a winnable game and one that will hinge more on its own execution.

FPI record: 3-5, 2-2 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 29.6% chance to win (down 1.6%)

Louisville’s chances against Virginia Tech have continued to climb, with most models now giving the Cardinals better than a 70% shot to win. Despite having last week off, Louisville enters the matchup in a strong position, carrying just one blemish on its record: a narrow overtime loss to No. 18 Virginia. That defeat aside, Jeff Brohm’s squad has looked sharp on both sides of the ball, combining an efficient passing attack with one of the ACC’s more disciplined defenses.

FPI record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 16.3% chance to win (up 1.4%)

Since Florida State’s third straight loss — a 34-31 setback to Pittsburgh that knocked it out of the AP top-25 — the Seminoles have been searching for answers. Still, they remain a more complete team than Virginia Tech. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has cooled off after a strong start, but his dual-threat ability continues to make him one of the ACC’s toughest players to defend. Even with his recent dip, Castellanos has shown flashes throughout this campaign that the Hokies have yet to match offensively.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 2 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 10.0% chance to win (down 1.1%)

Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels have turned into a two-headed Hydra as the Hurricanes' main two wideouts; through a quintet of games, Toney has led the team in receiving yards (375) and has tallied a trio of touchdowns. Meanwhile, Daniels leads the team in receiving touchdowns (five). Coupled with tailback Mark Fletcher Jr., who has five rushing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns, the Hurricanes appear to be a force on all aspects of the ball and far too much for Virginia Tech to handle.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at No. 18 Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 17.9% chance to win (down 0.3%)

With just one more win needed to clinch bowl eligibility, the 'Hoos have positioned themselves among the conference’s most dangerous teams. As a result, Virginia Tech enters this matchup at a clear disadvantage, with the latest FPI projections predicting a fourth consecutive loss for the Hokies. The projected FPI final record remains at 3-9, with California the lone remaining victory for Tech.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC