What's ESPN's FPI's Game-by-Game Predictions for Virginia Tech Football After Week 6 Loss to Wake Forest?

After the Hokies dropped to 2-4 on Saturday, what's the outlook now on ESPN's FPI?
Oct 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones (1) looks to pass as offensive lineman Aidan Lynch (76) blocks.
Oct 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones (1) looks to pass as offensive lineman Aidan Lynch (76) blocks. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

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Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 7, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 68 on the FPI, three spots below last week's No. 65 ranking. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 3.7-8.3 and the squad now ranks No. 11 in the ACC, one spot below last week. At the time or writing, which is Tuesday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 3.8% odds of claiming at least six wins and 0% odds of winning the ACC title or qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 65 on the FPI, five spots above last week's No. 70 ranking. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 4.7-7.4 and the squad now ranks No. 10 in the ACC. At the time of writing, which is Monday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 21.4% odds of claiming at least six wins, 0.6% odds of winning the ACC title and 0.3% odds of qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

According to FPI, Virginia Tech's remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 34, fourth-highest in the ACC, only behind NC State (No. 24), Syracuse (No. 29) and Pittsburgh (No. 33) The Hokies have one game remaining against a squad ranked lower on the FPI metric: Cal (No. 79) on Oct. 24.

Tech's Week 6 defeat came at the hands of Wake Forest, who entered the contest ranked at No. 86 and jumped up five spots this week after beating the Hokies.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Tech's current record: 2-4, 1-1 ACC
Wins: Wofford (FCS) (38-6), NC State (23-21)
Losses: then-No. 13 South Carolina (24-11), Vanderbilt (44-20), Old Dominion (45-26), Wake Forest (30-23)

Game 7, at No. 13 Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 20.2% chance to win (down 5.1%)

Georgia Tech remains undefeated and coming off a bye week, it's hard to see the Hokies stopping the pair of Haynes this Saturday. Signal-caller Haynes King has gone for seven scores on the ground and even without him, redshirt freshman Aaron Philo starred earlier this season against Gardner-Webb, compiling 373 passing yards. Exacerbating the Hokies' issues is the Yellow Jackets' dual-threat back Jamal Haynes, who boasts 311 rushing yards and three scores on 5.3 yards a carry in addition to 124 receiving yards on 15 receptions. All signs point to Georgia Tech triumphing this Saturday.

FPI record: 2-5, 1-2 ACC

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 74.2% chance to win (up 1%)

The Hokies’ odds of winning haven’t shifted much. California looks good but not great, a team with flashes of potential but plenty of growing pains, such as this week's 45-21 loss to Duke. The Golden Bears have talent and are capable of competing but just as capable of slipping up. For now, this one still feels like Virginia Tech’s game to lose.

FPI record: 3-5, 2-2 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 31.2% chance to win (down 4.1%)

Although Louisville lost its unbeaten streak, it remains a force to be reckoned with. The Cardinals took the now-No. 19 Cavaliers into overtime before falling, 30-27. Though Louisville signal-caller has been solid but unremarkable, ranking No. 48 in the nation in quarterback rating, his 1,358-yard, seven-touchdown, four-interception this season has left the Cardinals with a solid floor under center and a floor that should be enough to take care of Virginia Tech.

FPI record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at No. 25 Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 14.9% chance to win (down 2.6%)

Although Florida State has tumbled from the rankings since it loss to Virginia, the Seminoles remain ranked and present a formidable foe. Despite his struggles the past two weeks, Tommy Castellanos remains one of the better quarterbacks in college football. After three straight games with a QBR higher than 80, Castellanos turned in a 54.2 against Virginia and a 63.8 against Miami. That 63.8 tally has been exceeded just once by Virginia Tech's Kyron Drones and it — a 70.3 rating — came against FCS Wofford. The Hokies clinch a losing season.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 2 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 11.1% chance to win (down 2.4%)

Carson Beck has proven himself to be a reinvigorated quarterback; his QBR of 84.4 ranks No. 10 in the nation, placing him near or in the back end of the Heisman conversation. With the Hurricanes boasting more depth across almost every position, Virginia Tech finds itself on the back foot here and in FPI's hypothetical season, absorbs their third straight loss.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at No. 19 Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 18.2% chance to win (down 3.5%)

After being ranked in the AP Poll for the first time in six years, the good times have kept on rolling. After stunning then-No. 8 Florida State, the Cavaliers scampered by Louisville in their second straight overtime game. The 'Hoos are now just one game away from a bowl and could very well play in the ACC Championship game this season. Given that, Virginia Tech remains at a noticeable disadvantage probability-wise and the FPI once again projects that the Hokies suffers their fourth straight loss.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC

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Thomas Hughes
THOMAS HUGHES

Thomas is a sophomore at Virginia Tech majoring in multimedia journalism with a minor in creative writing. He currently works with Collegiate Times, Virginia Tech's student-run newspaper, as a staff writer for its sports section. In addition, he also writes for 3304 Sports as a staff writer and on-air talent, as well as Aspiring Journalists at Virginia Tech as a curator. You can find him on X: @thomashughes_05.

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