Would Virginia Tech's Best Case Scenario For the 2026 Season Result in a Playoff Berth?

With the hire of James Franklin in Blacksburg, expectations are going to shift for the Hokies

What should be the expectations for Virginia Tech this season? | Virginia Tech Athletic

The first spring football period for James Franklin at Virginia Tech is coming to a close. This is the final week of practice leading up to the official spring game and it is going to be one of the most anticipated spring games in years for this program.

Franklin was one of the most talked about hires of the offseason and he brought in a top 25 high school recruiting class as well as one of the top transfer portal classes in the ACC. With the perceived gap between Miami and the rest of the ACC in terms of talent acquisition, it is not far fetched to think Franklin could get this program to overacheive in year one and play in Charlotte for an ACC Championship.

Best and Worst Case Scenarios

Nov 22, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Incoming head coach James Franklin speaks to fans on the sideline before the game at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Best and worst case scenarios for a team can always be tricky, because the easy answer is the best case scenario for every FBS team is 12-0 and the worst case scenario is 0-12. However, it is not that simple and taking into account schedules and other factors, you can map out a more realistic path to the best case scenario and worst case scenario.

CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford recently shared that he believes that the best case scenario for Virginia Tech is a 10-2, 7-2 (ACC) season while the worst case is 6-6, 4-5:

Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. "Hokies fans will want to give James Franklin a lifetime contract if he wins 10 games during his first season, but he may never find another ACC schedule as conducive to success as this one. Battles at SMU, Clemson and Miami are worrisome, yes, but there's enough former Penn State firepower in the two-deep to put up a strong fight against those opponents."

Worst-case scenario: 6-6, 4-5. "It may get ugly for an offense in transition if quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer and the Hokies struggle at Maryland on Sept. 19. The Terps have their backs against the wall this season with Mike Locksley on the hot seat and have that one circled on their calendar. Losing in College Park would let the air out of the balloon at Virginia Tech and could commence a full-scale rebuild mentality in Blacksburg."

Let's dive into both scenarios and what they would mean for Franklin in his first season.

If the best case scenario comes true, it likely means they are playing in Charlotte for an ACC Championship and a spot in the college football playoff. If oddsmakers are correct, they are likely going to be facing Miami, a team that they play on the road in the regular season. Virginia Tech going 10-2 means that Ethan Grunkemeyer wastes not time settling into the starting role for the Hokies, the running game is as good as advertised, and the offensive line comes together quickly. Brent Pry gets the defense back to what a Virginia Tech defense should look like and the Hokies have their best season in a decade plus.

The worst case scenario would signal the end for the honeymoon phase of Franklin's time in Blacksburg. While I do not think Virginia Tech fans are expecting a berth in the college football playoff this season, 6-6 would not feel like the right step forward under Franklin. A 6-6 record that was not the result of injuries likely means that Grunkemeyer was not effective as a starter, the offensive line is porous, and the defense does not have any big turnaround.

Which is most likely? I lean towards best case, as the ACC gives Virginia Tech more room to overachieve. Yes, road trips to Clemson and SMU are tough, but those teams (especially Clemson) are not so far ahead of the Hokies that they cannot win those game if things go correctly. The margins will be thin, but again, it is a big question mark as to who is going to challenge Miami at the top of the ACC. I think it could be Virginia Tech at the end of the day. If this best case scenario comes true, you could be looking at a playoff berth for the Hokies in James Franklin's first season.