North Carolina vs Pitt: Preview and Prediction

Gameday Info

Tipoff: 7:00 PM ET

TV: ACC Network

Spread: North Carolina -8.5

Total: 146

North Carolina Team Overview

Record: 15-6 (7-3)

KenPom Ranking: 31st (26th Offense, 53rd Defense)

Recent Games: 72-68 W at Syracuse, 80-69 W vs North Carolina State, 72-64 W vs Boston College

Leading Scorers:

Sr. F Armando Bacot (17.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg)
Jr. G RJ Davis (16.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.2 apg)
Jr. G Caleb Love (16.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.1 apg)

The Tar Heels are soaring right now, winning their past four games in conference play, including impressive wins vs NC State and at Syracuse. After a disappointing non conference slate that humbled the AP Preseason #1, Hubert Davis has the Heels playing high-level ball. I’m not entirely sure why UNC isn’t ranked in this week’s AP Poll considering how well they’ve been playing, but it might benefit the Heels to go under-the-radar before March comes around.

Armando Bacot, who we have at Deacons Daily as the Midseason ACC Player of the Year in our recent awards, continues to dominate, averaging 20.5 points and 13 rebounds in his past two games. While Bacot dominates almost every game, Carolina has enough scoring options on the perimeter to supplement his play. Against NC State, it was RJ Davis who went for 26 points (while only taking 8 shots!), while Pete Nance went for 21 points in what could have been a trap game at Syracuse.

Caleb Love has probably been the biggest disappointment this season for UNC. After their run in March Madness last season, Love was thought to be a potential NBA draft pick, so his return to school was massive. However, his shooting numbers have dropped (3P% dropped from 36% to 28%, FT% dropped from 86% to 77%), while his usage rate has remained the exact same. In the past three games, Love is averaging 15.7 PPG on better efficiency. If he plays smart basketball and knocks down shots, this team can beat anyone.

Something to monitor with Carolina not only for this game but also for the rest of the season is how the rest of the rotation fills out behind its starting five. Puff Johnson hasn’t been the sixth man that Carolina thought he could be this season (he's likely out for this game with an injury anyway), and none of the young guys have stepped up consistently enough to cement themselves in the rotation. 

Seth Trimble was a regular in the rotation a couple weeks ago, but he has not played more than 4 minutes in the past three games. There was hope that D’Marco Dunn could give the Heels some guard depth, but he only played five minutes against Syracuse. Maybe Tyler Nickel will be a larger part of the rotation, but his 12 minutes against Syracuse were more minutes than he’d played in the last six games combined.

RJ Davis got banged up at the end of the Syracuse game but is  expected to be fine for this one. Despite all being talented recruits, Hubert Davis doesn’t seem to trust any of the young guys enough to play them significant minutes. Developing some confidence in his depth is what Davis might need to do to get this team back to its ceiling.

Pittsburgh Team Overview

Record: 15-7 (8-3)

KenPom Ranking: 67th (55th Offense, 87th Defense)

Recent Games: 71-68 W vs Miami, 81-79 W vs Wake Forest, 71-64 L vs Florida State

Leading Scorers:

Jr. F Blake Hinson (16.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 38.3 3P%)
Sr. G Jamarius Burton (16.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.8 apg)
Sr. G Greg Elliott (11.0 ppg, 90.2 FT%, 40.7 3P%)

After coming into the year 14th in the ACC Preseason Poll, this Pittsburgh team has shocked ACC fans and currently sits as a bubble team for the NCAA tournament (Last Four In according to Joe Lunardi on ESPN). In Jeff Capel’s first four seasons at Pitt, he never won more than six games in ACC play, a mark that he finally eclipsed in last week’s win vs Wake Forest.

Pitt picked up two close wins at home this past week, fending off Wake Forest and Miami in one possession games. The Panthers ended the Miami game on an 11-0 run, which erased a late eight-point deficit.

This Pitt team is extremely experienced, as five of its top six players in minutes are 22 or older (Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, Blake Hinson Greg Elliott, and Nike Sibande). Jeff Capel has done an incredible job finding pieces in the portal, as each of these veterans started their collegiate careers elsewhere.

Fede Federiko has emerged as the answer at the center position for Pitt this season after John Hugley's absence due to injury and personal reasons. Federiko brings a strong defensive presence, averaging 1.8 blocks per game, and compliments the perimeter scoring that the guards provide.

Blake Hinson has emerged as the star of this team out of nowhere, after missing the past two seasons with an injury and a medical condition while at Iowa State. Hinson is a great shooter and scorer, evidenced by his past two games of 24 (8 3PM) and 21 (5 3PM) points against Wake Forest and Miami, respectively. He takes the most threes on the team and hits them at a 38.3% clip. 

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Prediction:

When these teams played at Pitt earlier this season, UNC held the lead up until the final four minutes, when the Panthers got hot and finished strong. Burton exploded for 31 points on 14-17 shooting, while Hinson and Elliott struggled from the floor (6-22 FGs combined).  Bacot feasted against Federiko with 22 points and 13 rebounds in a dominant performance, while Davis and Love both struggled from the field (combined 7-20). 

When Pitt has struggled, it has been against teams with big, physical guards. Florida State’s shortest player in their lineup is 6'5" which frustrated Pitt’s guards, particularly Cummings, who shot 2-12 from the field in their surprising loss at home. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, North Carolina starts two smaller guards in 6'0" Davis and 6'4" Love, so their success will hinge on their ability to take advantage of that matchup.

I see Bacot having his way with the thinly built Federiko on the interior, plus Pitt doesn't have the front court depth to survive if he gets into foul trouble. I expect Davis and Love to certainly shoot it better in front of the home crowd than they did in the game at Pittsburgh. Overall, this Carolina team is rolling right now, and I see them getting revenge for earlier this season with a strong performance on both ends of the floor. I'm willing to lay the 8.5.

The Pick: North Carolina -8.5

Prediction: North Carolina 78, Pittsburgh 67

Jack Smart's 2022-23 ATS Record: 5-4

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