Wake Forest at No. 15 Miami: Preview and Prediction
This Saturday afternoon battle between Miami and Wake Forest is arguably the highest level ACC matchup of the day.
Gameday Info
Location: The Watsco Center, Coral Gables, Florida
Tipoff: 2 p.m. ET
TV: ACCNX
Spread: Miami -7
Total: 157.5
Miami Team Overview:
Record: 21-5, (12-4)
KenPom: 33rd (9th Offensive, 120th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 80-72 at North Carolina, W 93-85 vs Louisville, W 81-59 vs Duke
Leading scorers:
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (16.0 ppg, 4.5 reb, 3.5 ast)
Gr. G Jordan Miller (15.0 ppg, 5.8 reb, 2.7 ast)
So. F Norchad Omier (13.8 ppg, 9.9 reb, 59.7 FG%)
Make it five-straight wins for the No. 15 Miami Hurricanes. Jim Larrañaga's group is having quite the season, and are looking poised for another March run.
During this win streak, Miami has put together two impressive wins against blue bloods in front of a national audience. Back on Feb. 6, Miami smoked Duke by 22, jumping out to a 10-1 lead and never looking back. Six days ago, the Canes went into the Dean Dome and made another big statement, controlling Carolina in the second half.
This group is clicking on all cylinders, as their small-ball style and balanced offensive attack makes them a very tough matchup for most teams. Even though their two starting bigs are 6'6" (Jordan Miller) and 6'7" (Norchad Omier) respectively, their ability to force turnovers and defend as a unit makes them formidable at times on that end of the floor as well.
The four key pieces for this group are Isaiah Wong, Miller, Omier and Nijel Pack. Wong is on his way to a First Team All-ACC selection, leading his team in both points and assists this year. His scoring numbers are a bit down from earlier in the season, but he's still been playing at a high level. Wong has scored in double figures in seven-straight games, and has topped four assists in each of his last three.
Larrañaga has deemed Miller the most underrated player in the nation, a do-it-all guy who's coming off of one of his best performances of the season. Miller went for 24 points and 11 rebounds in the win on Monday.
Omier dealt with foul trouble against UNC, playing only six minutes in the first half on his way to a five-point, seven-rebound line. In the two games prior, he put up a combined 28 points and 17 rebounds.
Pack made noise this offseason, receiving an $800K NIL deal from a Miami booster to join the team. It took some time, but Pack has really started to find his groove lately. The Kansas State transfer has knocked down four three-pointers in back-to-back games while scoring a combined 45 points.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 17-9 (9-6)
KenPom: 75th (28th Offensive, 152nd Defensive)
Recent Games: W 92-85 vs North Carolina, W 81-64 at Notre Dame
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.6 ppg, 6.2 ast, 1.6 stl)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.4 ppg, 3.6 reb, 40.2 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.8 ppg, 5.7 reb, 2.7 ast)
Head coach Steve Forbes has strung together three-straight victories this month after a four-game skid at the end of January. Three of those four losses were by an exact margin of two points. It was a necessity for Wake Forest to take care of business in each of these contests to remain in the at-large conversation.
The Demon Deacons were able to overcome a slow start in South Bend back on Feb. 4, cruised past UNC on their home floor on Feb. 7 and last Saturday escaped a legitimate scare from Georgia Tech unscathed.
Only Miami has a better offense in the ACC according to KenPom, and the ability to score at a high level is what makes this Wake Forest team dangerous. They've shown that they can play with the best teams in the league, but they've struggled to secure a true marquee win to this point.
Like last season, the Deacs are led by a graduate transfer point guard who tops the league in both points and assists. Tyree Appleby has been the heart and soul of Forbes' group all season long. A 35-point, 11-assist, seven-rebound performance against Carolina and a 16-point, six-assist line against the Yellow Jackets led him to USBWA National Player of the Week honors.
Damari Monsanto, Cameron Hildreth and Andrew Carr provide the main scoring punch alongside Appleby. Monsanto has gone cold over his last two games (4-16 3PTs) after a 28-point (8-13 3PTs) gem vs Notre Dame. He has been rebounding the ball at a high level, grabbing seven or more boards in each game on the current win streak.
Hildreth broke out of a slump on Saturday, scoring 19 points in the win. Prior to that game, Hildreth had gone three straight without scoring in double figures.
Carr has been struggling a bit on the offensive end as well lately, as he hasn't scored over 10 once on this win streak.He's still been one of Wake's most important players all season long, as he provides crucial versatility on both ends of the floor as a 6'10" stretch big.
Prediction:
The consensus between bracketologists is that Wake Forest is currently on the wrong side of the bubble. A win in Coral Gables on Saturday would be a massive resume booster that could launch them into the field.
However, it's quite the tall task to go steal a win in the Watsco Center where the Hurricanes are a perfect 14-0 this season. Miami is playing some of the best ball in the country right now, and I don't think Wake has enough to pull off an upset.
The total (157.5) is sky high for this one, and all signs point to this being a very high-scoring game. In an up-and-down contest like this, Wake is capable of getting hot from distance and scrapping together enough stops to steal a win.
At the end of the day though, Wake needs to put together a very efficient offensive performance while defending much better than they have on the road this season. That's a lot to ask. I expect Larrañaga's guys not only win, but to pull away late and cover the spread.
The Pick: Miami -7.5
Score Prediction: Miami 89 Wake Forest 80
Season prediction record
14-12 ATS
20-6 Straight up
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