Wake Forest at Pitt: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest is back on the road after a two-game homestand for a matchup against the Pitt Panthers.
How to Watch: Wake Forest vs Pitt
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest +3
Total: 149
Pitt Team Overview:
Record: 13-7 (6-3)
KenPom: 68th (57th Offensive, 92nd Defensive)
Recent Games: L 71-64 vs Florida State, W 75-54 at Louisville, W 71-60 at Georgia Tech
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Jamarius Burton (16.5 ppg, 4.7 reb, 4.4 ast)
Sr. F Blake Hinson (15.8 ppg, 6.6 reb, 35.5 3PT%)
Sr. G Greg Elliott (10.6 ppg, 4.4 reb, 38.9 3PT%)
Pitt has been one of the surprise teams in the ACC this season, and Jeff Capel did a fantastic job of adding through the transfer portal. The Panthers started conference play 4-0, with impressive road wins at NC State, at Syracuse, as well as home wins over North Carolina and Virginia. Since then, Pitt has lost three of five games, but this team is still a legitimate threat in the ACC.
Pitt made light work on the road of Georgia Tech and Louisville before dropping a tough home game to Florida State on Saturday. Pitt led by ten early, but the Seminoles quickly counter-punched, and built a twelve point lead before halftime. Pitt took the lead back in the second half and trailed by just one with two minutes remaining, but FSU held on to win.
Pitt is third in the ACC in three-pointers made per game with 8.7, and they shoot it at a 33.8% clip. Against Florida State, Pitt shot 25% from downtown, making just 7-28 attempts. Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson scored 20 and 16 apiece.
Burton and Hinson are veterans - they’ve both been in college since 2018. They are also the third highest scoring duo in the conference. They lead this Pitt offense with their ability to create for themselves and make tough shots. Burton turned in one of the best individual performances in the ACC this season back on Dec. 30, scoring 31 on 14-17 shooting in the win over North Carolina.
Pitt is incredibly old for a college team, as guards Greg Elliott, Nelly Cummings and Nike Sibande are all in their fifth or sixth year of school. Sibande went for 21 last Saturday against Georgia Tech, and Elliott drilled five triples on his way to 23 points against Louisville on Wednesday. Cummings leads the team in assists and helps take pressure off of Burton, although he’s in quite the shooting slump. He’s 3-20 (15%) from the field over his last two games.
Defensively, Pitt ranks in the upper-middle tier of the conference. Federiko Federiko has one of the best names in college basketball, and the 6’11” center from Finland has thrived in an expanded role with John Hugley unavailable. His 1.7 blocks per game is third in the ACC, and he provides important backline rim protection.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 14-6 (6-3)
KenPom: 76th (30th Offensive, 149th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 76-67 vs Virginia, W 87-77 vs Clemson, W 85-63 at Boston College
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (17.9 ppg, 6.0 ast, 1.8 stl, 40.2 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (13.3 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (12.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 41.1 3PT%)
Wake Forest’s four-game win streak came to an end on Saturday, when the No. 7 Virginia Cavaliers came to town and secured a victory. Wake trailed by as much as 19 early on, and although they cut it to just one in the second half, Virginia held solid and never surrendered the lead. The Cavaliers drilled 15 three-pointers and only turned the ball over seven times.
Damari Monsanto knocked down seven threes on his way to a career-high 25 points. Removing an outlier three-point game against Boston College on Jan. 14, Monsanto is averaging 20.4 points per game in the month of January. He now leads the ACC in three-pointers made per game with 3.2.
Tyree Appleby had an off day on Saturday, shooting 4-16 from the field and 1-8 from deep. His streak of seven games in a row with seven or more assists came to an end too. Appleby was shooting close to 50% from three-point land for most of this season, but over his last three games he’s only made 5-22 (23%). Appleby remains second in the ACC in scoring and first in assists, and will look to get back on track in this road matchup.
Cameron Hildreth continued his strong play, scoring 16 points and grabbing seven rebounds in the loss. He’s averaging 19.0 points per game over his last five, and has multiple steals in four straight.
The 67 points scored against Virginia was Wake’s first scoring output below 70 since the Rutgers loss back on Dec. 17. In five of the team’s six losses, they failed to score over 70 in regulation. Steve Forbes has gotten this team to play at an elite level on the offensive end, and prior to Saturday’s loss, Wake scored over 80 in four straight games, all wins. Wake’s 77.4 points per game on the season is fourth in the ACC.
Defensively, Wake is 10th in adjusted efficiency during ACC play. One key defensive weakness is the lack of rim protection. The Deacs are last in the conference, averaging just 2.35 blocks per game
Prediction:
Pitt is a veteran group coming off of a bad home loss, so I see this as a premiere bounce-back spot. Pitt has already beaten the two best teams in the conference at home this season (by a combined five points), and I expect them to grind out another close one Wednesday night.
Wake has shown a propensity to jump out to early leads in games, and if they get off to a good start here, I could see them controlling wire to wire. However, I expect Pitt to come out with some fire on defense, and for Burton, Hinson and the crew to turn in strong performances on the offensive end that leads the Panthers to a victory.
The Deacs showed a lot of fight coming back against Virginia, and even though they’ve won their last two road games, they came against Boston College and Louisville. Pitt had over 10,000 fans in attendance on Saturday and should have another full house for this one. I do think this is going to be a nailbiter, so I’ll take the points with Wake, but I expect the home team to come out on top here.
The Pick: Wake Forest +3
Final Score: Pitt 76 Wake Forest 74
Season prediction record
10-10 ATS
15-5 Straight up
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