Wake Forest vs Clemson: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest is headed south to take on Clemson in their ACC opener.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCNX
Spread: Clemson -3
Moneyline: Wake Forest +140, Clemson -165
Total: 143
Clemson Team Overview:
Record: 6-2
KenPom Ranking: 62nd (44th Off, 83rd Def)
Clemson needed two overtime periods on Tuesday night to take down Penn State (35th in KP), 101-94. The Tigers led by seven with under 45 seconds to play in regulation, but proceeded to make 1/5 of their free throw attempts, and the Nittany Lions took advantage to send the game to OT. Star big man PJ Hall has been playing limited minutes in November because of offseason surgery. He scored a season-high 22 points in just 25 minutes in the win. Senior wing Hunter Tyson scored a career-high 24 points (he had zero at halftime) and grabbed nine rebounds in the win. That moved his season averages up to 14.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game.
Clemson’s two losses this season were by a combined margin of five points. A two-point loss to 3-4 South Carolina (164 in KP) is a brutal hit on the resume, but a three-point loss to Iowa (21st in KP) on a neutral court was much more understandable. The win over Penn State was the Tigers first win this season against a team inside the top 225 in KenPom.
Redshirt junior guard Chase Hunter has been head coach Brad Brownell’s best scorer and facilitator so far this season. Hunter is averaging 15.4 points and 5.3 assists per game while making 45.7% of his field goal attempts and 57.6% of his three pointers. Rounding out the Tigers’ starting five are two senior guards, shooters Alex Hemenway and Brevin Galloway. Hemenway (45.7 3P%) has gotten off to a much better start to the season shooting the ball than Galloway (30.0 3P%) has.
Wake Forest Overview:
Record: 7-1
KenPom Ranking: 69th (47th Offensive, 98th Defensive)
Wake Forest secured a marquee road victory on Tuesday night, taking down Wisconsin (45th in KP) 78-75 in Madison. Tyree Appleby put together a gem of a game, scoring 32 points, 20 of which came in the second half. Cam Hildreth scored 15 points, including the go-ahead bucket with 34 seconds remaining.
Prior to the trip to Wisconsin, the Demon Deacons easily handled South Carolina State and Hampton at home. Wake’s only loss of the season came against Loyola Marymount in the Jersey Mike’s Jamaica Classic, where the Deacs squandered an eight-point lead in the final two minutes and lost 77-75 in overtime.
Appleby has been the star of Steve Forbes’ group so far this season. His performance in Madison moved his season totals to 19.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.5 apg, and 1.8 spg. He's alsbo been incredibly efficient; he's shooting 53.4% from the field and 45.7% from behind the arc. Hildreth has taken a big step forward in his sophomore season, as he’s averaging 12.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 3.6 apg. He also posted a triple double in the win over Hampton. After a slow start to the season, Damari Monsanto is averaging 16.3 points and 2.3 steals per game over his last three outings. His ability to stretch the defense as a shooter has been a huge boost to this Wake Forest offense.
Click the links below for our thoughts on the last three games played of by the Deacs:
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 78-75 win over Wisconsin
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 97-70 win over Hampton
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 77-75 loss to Loyola Marymount
Why Clemson will cover:
Clemson is tough to beat at home. They put that on display when they took down a strong Penn State side earlier this week. Clemson hasn’t lost at home to Wake Forest since 2009. When they hosted the Deacs last year, they won 80-69.
Appleby has been fantastic this season, but PJ Hall will be the most dominant player on the floor in this game. His minutes should continue to increase, and he did play a season high 25 in Tuesday's marathon. The Tigers are a super old team, as Hall is the only starter who hasn’t been in college since at least 2019, and that experience can be key against a younger Wake squad.
Brownell’s group is also off to a scorching hot start from three point range this season, shooting 39.7% as a team. In the one game Wake Forest lost this season to Loyola Marymount, they surrendered 13 deep balls. Clemson hasn’t traveled since Nov. 27, while the Deacs had a quick turnaround after the Wisconsin game.
Why Wake Forest will cover:
The Demon Deacons proved Tuesday night in their first real test of the season that they can go grind out a tough win on the road. Led by Appleby, the Deacs offense looked dynamic, and had its way against one of the top defenses in the country. Wake was able to secure that win with Daivien Williamson (10.7 ppg) not fully healthy, and with Andrew Carr (10.9 ppg) limited to 15 minutes because of foul trouble. They also did a great job of making life difficult for the Badgers’ Tyler Wahl, a very tough matchup on the block, who shot 6-14 from the floor.
Limiting Hall will be key for Wake, and this team has multiple bodies to throw at him in Carr, Matthew Marsh (who was fantastic on both ends against Wisconsin) and Davion Bradford. Appleby is playing with so much confidence right now, and his speed on the ball will cause problems for Clemson's less athletic guards. The Tigers defense (83rd in KP) isn’t very daunting, and Wake Forest is playing with plenty of flow and confidence on that end at the moment.
The Pick: Wake Forest +3
I'm taking the Deacs once again to come out with a road victory Friday night. The travel situation isn’t ideal, but it’s not enough of an issue to make me change my pick. Both teams are coming off of emotional wins in the ACC vs Big Ten Challenge, but Clemson going two extra periods means they could be a bit more tired. I believe the Tiger's guards will struggle to contain Appleby off the dribble, and Wake’s offense will carry on the momentum from their last few games. I’ll take the three points just in case, but I think the Deacs turn in their second statement win of the week Friday night.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 75 Clemson 70
Season prediction record
4-4 ATS
7-1 Straight up
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