Wake Forest vs Notre Dame: Preview and Prediction
Gameday Info
Location: LJVM Coliseum - Winston-Salem, NC
Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest -7
Total: 151
Notre Dame Team Overview:
Record: 10-18 (2-15)
KenPom: 173rd (93rd Offensive, 276th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 63-59 vs UNC, L 57-55 at UVA, L 68-64 at Duke
Leading Scorers:
Sr. F Nate Laszewski (14.3 ppg, 7.2 reb, 41.1 3P%)
Sr. G Dane Goodwin (11.9 ppg, 5.1 reb, 38.7 3P%)
Sr. G Cormac Ryan (11.6 ppg, 4.1 reb, 37.1 3P%)
It's been a brutal season thus far for the Fighting Irish, who have lost ten of their last eleven games.
The last five losses have all been quite competitive however, as the largest margin of defeat was six points. The 2-15 conference record is a total embarrassment to this program, but the level of play has definitely been better as of late.
Offensively this is a capable team with three-point shooters all over the floor. Notre Dame is third in the ACC in three-pointers made during conference play with 155, only trailing Pitt and Wake Forest. Plus, they commit the third least amount of turnovers in the entire country (8.8 per game).
Nate Laszewski has become the top offensive option for this team, yet he's been quite inconsistent lately. In his last 4 games, his scoring outputs are 4, 18, 5, and 33 points. It's been a similar story for Dane Goodwin, who's last four outputs are 7, 12, 25, and 5 points. Cormac Ryan has drilled multiple three-pointers in four straight games.
Mike Brey has tooled around with his lineup a bit, flip-flopping between Goodwin and freshman JJ Starling in the last few games. Notre Dame is 336th in the country in bench points per game, but in the loss vs Carolina on Wednesday, Starling chipped in 10 while Trey Wertz added 13 as reserves.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 17-11 (9-8)
KenPom: 81st (26th Offensive, 168th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 90-74 at NC State, L 96-87 at Miami, W 71-70 vs Georgia Tech
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.5 ppg, 6.3 ast, 1.6 stl)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.3 ppg, 3.7 reb, 40.5 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.9 ppg, 5.5 reb, 2.8 ast)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are losers of two in a row and six of their last nine games. Their last two losses were Quad 1 opportunities against tournament locks on the road, and Wake came up short both times, surrendering 90+ points in each.
The big story from the loss vs NC State was Damari Monsanto's injury. Monsanto leads the ACC in three-pointers made per game this season, but he tore his patella tendon at the end of the first half on Wednesday. This is a massive blow to an already reeling team.
Wake's offense exploded for 46 points in the first half against the Wolfpack, but still found themselves trailing by six heading into the break. Against Miami last Saturday, the Deacs drilled 15 triples, and it still didn't put them in a position to win the game. This group continues to struggle on the defensive end of the floor, and now things are going to be more of a challenge offensively as well.
With Monsanto out, there will be even more pressure on Tyree Appleby to carry the load offensively. The ACC's leading scorer is coming off of a 19 point performance on Wednesday, and has turned the ball over 20 times over his last three games.
Cam Hildreth will also need to step up. He's been playing better over his last three games, scoring 13, 14, and 19 points while shooting over 55% from the field each time.
Steve Forbes has a couple of options of how he'll replace Monsanto in the starting lineup. It's likely he goes Appleby, HIldreth, Daivien Williamson, Andrew Carr, and Matthew Marsh. It's also in play that freshman Bobi Klintman plays over Williamson or Marsh.
Flashback: Feb. 4, 2023 - Wake Forest wins at Notre Dame 81-64
Wake Forest was riding a four game losing streak when they traveled to South Bend three weeks back. Ten minutes into the game, Wake trailed 16-4. The Deacs overcame their ten first half turnovers, and held a 27-26 point lead heading into the break.
Damari Monsanto hit three triples in the first two minutes of the second half, and it was smooth sailing from then on. Wake Forest scored 77 points in the final three quarters of the game. Monsanto went for a career high 28 points in the win, knocking down 8-13 attempts from long range. Appleby added 16 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists. Nate Laszewski led the way for Notre Dame, scoring 18.
Prediction:
I'm surprised this line is as large as it is. Although both teams enter this game on losing streaks, It seems like one is ascending while the other is descending.
It felt like this Notre Dame team had given up on the season, but they've actually put forth strong defensive efforts in their last three, and coming up just short against three top 50 KenPom teams. Plus, two of those performances came on the road.
The veteran players on the Fighting Irish are fighting hard for respect after an embarrassing ACC performance thus far. I think this is the game they could finally get over the hump and secure a bit win.
Wake on the other hand is playing without a crucial player and won't have the same motivation knowing that an at-large isn't on the table anymore. I'm not saying this team is giving up, but in front of a potentially lackluster crowd I wouldn't be surprised if they came out flat.
Monsanto torched Notre Dame earlier this month, and I bet those players will be licking their lips when they step on the court and don't see No. 30 in old gold and black.
Notre Dame hasn't won an ACC game on the road yet this season, but I have a feeling today could be the day they pull it off. I definitely think Brey's guys cover the 6.5, and I wouldn't be surprised if they pull of the upset.
The Pick: Notre Dame +7
Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 72 Wake Forest 68
Season prediction record
16-12 ATS
22-6 Straight up
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