Wake Forest vs Utah Valley: Preview and Prediction
The 2-0 Wake Forest Demon Deacons look to keep their home winning streak going Tuesday night when the Utah Valley Wolverines come to town.
Follow along here for live updates and coverage of the game.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest -11
Over/under: 144
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Wake Forest Overview:
Record: 2-0
KenPom Ranking: 75th (58th Offensive, 91st Defensive)
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Utah Valley Team Overview:
Record: 2-1
Conference: WAC
KenPom Ranking: 140th (162nd Off, 126th Def)
Utah Valley won 20 games last season and pulled off a couple of upsets in non-conference play. The Wolverines beat BYU (ranked No. 12 at the time) 72-67 in overtime, and also took down Washington 68-52 on the road.
The biggest difference from last year's team is the loss of two time WAC Defensive Player of the Year Fardaws Aimaq, who averaged 18.9 points and 14.6 rebounds per game. He was very sought after in the transfer portal, and ended up at Texas Tech. Excluding Aimaq, seven of the top eight guys are back from last year’s team. Yet, head coach Mark Madsen’s group was only projected to come in 7th in their conference preseason poll.
The Wolverines lost their season opener on the road to a pretty good Utah State team (48th in KP) 75-58. They responded with two wins at home, against D2 Western Colorado (91-64) and Northern Arizona (73-69).
Key stat:
The Wolverines were 348th in the nation in offensive turnover rate, because they gave the ball away on an absurd 22.1% of their possessions. Through three games this season, Utah Valley is only turning it over 9.3 times per game, compared to 15.5 last year. Wake Forest is forcing 14 turnovers per game so far, so if Utah Valley wants to compete in this game they must take care of the basketball.
Utah Valley X-Factor: Aziz Bandaogo
Bandaogo is a seven-footer from Senegal who transferred in from Akron this offseason. He only played around 12 minutes a game last season for the Zips, but he’s taken on a much bigger role for the Wolverines and has already shown huge growth. Bandaogo is averaging 14 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3 blocks per game on 81% shooting so far this year. His defensive presence as a shot blocker and alterer could prove to make things difficult for Wake Forest. If Bandaogo is the best big man on the floor tonight, Utah Valley has a good chance to give the Demon Deacons a scare.
Wake Forest X-Factor: Daivien Williamson/Tyree Appleby
These two veteran guards were awesome in the win over Georgia, and they're going to have to continue to play a lot of minutes with Jao Ituka still sidelined with an injury. Williamson and Appleby combined for 46 points and 10 assists last game, and they impacted the game in so many ways. These guys control the pace of play and did a great job of applying ball pressure and forcing turnovers last time out. The quickness of these two guards will be a matchup problem for this bigger and slower Utah Valley team. If these two leaders excel on both ends of the floor, the Demon Deacons will be too much for the Wolverines to handle.
Why Wake Forest will cover:
Wake Forest found an identity in the win over Georgia. Coach Steve Forbes and his staff have these guys playing well together early on this season. If the Deacs are a mid-tier ACC team like it sure looks like they will be, they should be able to cruise at home against a mid-major squad that just barely scraped by Northern Arizona who isn't very good (255th in KP). Plus, Utah Valley has only made 19 three-pointers through three games this year, and they are only connecting on 31% of their attempts from distance. Getting hot from three-point land is usually the best way to pull of an upset, and with that being an area of weakness, the Wolverines won't be able to keep up with this explosive Wake Forest offense.
Why Utah Valley will cover:
The Wolverines aren't the same team without Aimaq, but they still return the majority of pieces from last year’s 20 win squad. This team is tall and athletic with some high flying athletes, plus they will be playing with confidence after proving last season that they can compete with power five teams. They trot out a really tall starting five, with Bandaogo surrounded by 6-9 Tim Caesar and three 6-4 guards. Fifth-year guard Trey Woodbury is averaging 14.3 points a game and shooting 45.5% from deep. He's a tough and smart player that the Deacs could struggle to match up with. Appleby and Williamson are both 6-1 so they will have to guard much bigger players (which will be a reoccurring theme this season). Utah Valley’s size can pose problems for the Deacs, and if they take care of the ball and hit eight or more threes, they could make this game very interesting.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 78 - Utah Valley 65
The Pick: Wake Forest -11
For the first time this season I’m going to take the Demon Deacons to not only win but to cover as well. Utah Valley’s continuity and size will not make them an easy out, but Wake looked really connected last game, and I don’t think the Wolverines will be able to guard the perimeter very well. I’m expecting a three-point barrage from the Deacs in this one (maybe a Monsanto coming out party), and for the home team to be in firm control in the second half. I see Wake Forest having their way offensively and forcing the Wolverines into plenty of turnovers. Take Wake Forest to win by double digits and cover the number.
Prediction record
1-1 ATS
2-0 Straight up
Last game prediction: Wake 76 Georgia 70
Actual: Wake Forest 81 Georgia 71
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