Where Does Wake Forest Basketball Sit in the Predictive Metrics?
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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons must now put non-conference action in the rear-view mirror and get ready for ACC play. The good news is that the ACC Wake will be competing in is much stronger than a season ago, when Wake just got a bunch of Quad 3 games. The Deacs will definitely have opportunities to show that they are a tournament team by competing hard in the ACC.
The bad news is that, even though opportunities are still plentiful, the question looms large as to whether this team will actually be able to capitalize on those opportunities. Currently, they sit at 9-4, which Steve Forbes mentioned in a recent press conference is a little behind where he thought they needed to be. The Deacs will have to come out of this break re-energized to make a run.
KenPom Numbers
KenPom is one of the premier analytics tools college basketball utilizes. It is also a key factor in determining which teams end up hearing their name called in March. Currently, the Deacs sit at 59th in KenPom. Last year at this time, Wake Forest was at 99th in KenPom. This jump can be explained by the Deacs winning much more convincingly in buy games than they did a season ago.
So from a rankings perspective, the Deacs are significantly ahead of where they were a season ago. In terms of the ACC, Wake Forest is the 10th-rated team in the conference according to KenPom. At the end of last season, Wake was the 6th-rated team in the conference. This shows the significant improvement in competitiveness the conference has seen this season.
NET Ranking
The NET Ranking is another form of analytics that breaks down opponents and outcomes into different quadrants based on level of difficulty. Right now, Wake Forest ranks 68th in the NET. They are 0-3 against Quad 1 opponents, 1-1 against Quad 2 opponents, 1-0 in Quad 3, and 7-0 in Quad 4. Despite the fact that they have no marquee wins to show for, they did avoid the blowup losses in Quad 3/4.
At this time last season, Wake was sitting at 105 in the NET. They were at the same 9-4 mark as the current team. They were 1-4 in Quad 1, 0-0 in Quad 2, 2-0 in Quad 3, and 6-0 in Quad 4. So they had the same perfect mark in Quad 3/4, along with a marquee Quad 1 win. However, last year's team failed to win convincingly in their buy games, which explains the low NET ranking.
So as you can see, the sky is not falling, and the Deacs are still in an okay spot heading into conference play. Yes, they will need to pick up marquee wins, but they will have opportunities. This year's team will have far more Quad 1/2 conference games than last year's team. Let's hope the long break serves the Deacs well, and they hit the hardwood with new motivation!
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Justin is a student at Wake Forest University. He is from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and aspiring finance major interested everything sports. In his freshman year, Justin completed an internship with the Wake Forest Ticketing Department where he gained some valuable insight into the sales and operations aspects of collegiate athletics. Before working with Wake Forest On SI, Justin was a contributing writer for Wake Forest’s student publication The Old Gold and Black. Currently, Justin serves as a student manager on the Wake Forest Men’s Tennis team. In his free time Justin enjoys spending time with his family and friends on the golf course and traveling.