ACC Football Week 7: Game Previews and Predictions
ATS Picks Season Record: 7-8 (5-1 last week)
ATS Best Bet Season Record: 1-1 (1-0 last week
This week’s abbreviated ACC schedule brings us four conference showdowns, highlighted by a primetime matchup that sees No. 4 Clemson visit Florida State. The Atlantic remains as competitive as ever, with the Tigers as the current favorite, while we will get some additional clarity in the Coastal this weekend.
READ: Wake Forest College Football Playoff Odds, Bowl Predictions
Saturday
Miami (2-3) at Virginia Tech (2-4)
Spread: Miami -7 (-110), Virginia Tech +7 (-110)
Moneyline: Miami (-285), Virginia Tech (+230)
Total: 48.5
Time/Channel: 12:30 ET, ESPN3
Last Saturday, the Hurricanes lost 27-24 to UNC. Miami entered North Carolina territory on all eleven of its offensive drives, but only produced four scores. This isn’t the first time this season that Mario Cristobal’s squad has faltered in red zone scoring; they only mustered 9 points against Texas A&M in Week 3. QB Tyler Van Dyke finally found some traction in the defeat, throwing for 496 yards and three touchdowns.
The Hokies dropped their third straight game last weekend in a 45-29 defeat to Pittsburgh. Their defense, which has been a bright spot so far this season, allowed Panthers lead back Israel Abanikanda to total 320 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. In the loss, QB Grant Wells threw for over 200 yards against FBS competition for the first time this season.
The Pick: Miami -7
Despite the lackluster start to the season, the Hurricanes still bring a lot of firepower to the table offensively. They also boast a defense that places third in the ACC with seven total interceptions. Wells leads the ACC with seven interceptions. Van Dyke is clearly the superior quarterback in this matchup, so I feel confident taking the Hurricanes to win easy here in a nice bounce back spot.
READ: ESPN's FPI Predicts the Rest of Wake Forest's Season
#15 North Carolina State (5-1) at #18 Syracuse (5-0)
Spread: Syracuse -3.5 (-105), North Carolina State +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Syracuse (-176), North Carolina State (+146)
Total: 42
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
Syracuse is off to its first undefeated start through five games since 1987. They’ll look to prove that they deserve their ranking this afternoon in this big time matchup. Their unexpected emergence comes behind a defense that is allowing a conference low 272 yards per game, and a dynamic offense led by star running back Sean Tucker. Tucker totaled 232 rushing yards, 20 short of the school record, in the Orange’s last matchup before the bye week in a 59-0 rout of Wagner.
No. 15 NC State gritted out a huge 19-17 home victory against Florida State last week to halt a potential skid. However, losing quarterback Devin Leary mid game to an injury on his throwing shoulder tainted the win. His recovery time is unclear, Graduate transfer Jack Chambers will start in the meantime. The Wolfpack defense stepped up in his absence, limiting the Seminoles to just 73 second half yards, and a game clinching interception with 38 seconds remaining.
The Pick: North Carolina State +3.5 (Bonus: Under 42)
Syracuse’s undefeated start to the season is certainly impressive, but NC State is definitely their toughest opponent today. Even coming off the bye week at home, I see them struggling heavily against one of the best defenses in college football. I’ll scoop up the points with the Wolfpack on the road, in what I expect to be a low scoring affair.
#4 Clemson (6-0) at Florida State (4-2)
Spread: Clemson -4.5 (-115), Florida State +4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Clemson (-205), Florida State (+168)
Total: 51
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Only leading by a touchdown at the break, No. 4 Clemson left no doubt in the second half, beating Boston College 31-3 domination last week. The Tigers have now won 12 straight ACC games dating back to last year.
Florida State enters the last leg of a brutal three game stretch coming off back to back losses. Last week’s 19-17 defeat to the Wolfpack was a tough one; the Seminoles sacrificed a 14 point lead, and Jordan Travis threw interceptions on the team’s final two drives. The FSU offense has gone cold for long stretches in both of their recent defeats while Travis continues to provide crucial turnovers to opposing defenses.
The Pick: Clemson -4.5
Maybe Jordan Travis bounces back here at home, but my confidence in him is lower than it's been all season. And on the other side, the oft-criticized DJ Uiagalelei seems to finally be hitting his long sought after stride, with a 14:2 touchdown to interception ratio on the year. The line sat at 7.5 on Wednesday, and sharp movement like that typically would make me want to take the Seminoles. However, I’ll be riding with the far superior team to win and cover on the road tonight.
North Carolina (5-1) at Duke (4-2)
Spread: North Carolina -7 (-110), Duke +7 (-110)
Moneyline: North Carolina (-265), Duke (+215)
Total: 67.5
Time/Channel: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN
A key 18-play, 81-yard fourth quarter drive took eight minutes off the clock and stretched the lead to 10 in the win over Miami last week. The Tar Heels were criticized early for their performances vs Florida A&M and App State, but last Saturday’s win over Miami showed that this is clearly a top team in the ACC Coastal. Behind the continued ascendant presence of breakout quarterback Drake Maye, UNC boasts the top scoring offense in the conference (42.4 PPG).
Duke fell victim to a Georgia Tech team last weekend, 23-20, in overtime. The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 under interim head coach Brent Key, so it’s difficult to gauge if this was a bad loss. The Blue Devils did lead an admirable comeback effort in the final stages of Saturday’s loss, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter to send the game to an additional frame.
The Pick: Duke +7 (BEST BET OF THE WEEK)
The total is sky high in this one, so a shootout is expected. While North Carolina has the better offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. I like this bounce back spot for Duke, coming off the overtime loss (and the winnable game vs Kansas back on Sep.24), to keep up offensively and slow down Drake Maye just enough to keep this one close. I’ll take the points with the home dogs here. I can’t fully get behind the moneyline, but I would not be surprised by an outright win.
All odds via Fanduel.
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