Wake Forest season projections updated by ESPN's FPI
For as much a ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is critiqued by college football fans, it may be time to start giving it some respect. Despite oddsmakers and analysts all favoring the No. 10 Demon Deacons last weekend, FPI correctly forecasted the Louisville Cardinals winning at home. The metric may not have foreseen the drastic 27-point margin of victory, but credit is due for the correct pick.
After the results from this past weekend, the FPI has been updated. Not surprisingly, Wake Forest has fallen in the rankings. Last week ranked 21, the Deacs tanked down to 36, good for sixth-best in the ACC. Louisville vaulted all the way up 29, finally fulfilling their high preseason expectations.
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FPI has erased any chance for Wake to win the ACC– in fact, it says there is a 0.2% chance that a team other than Clemson or UNC wins the ACC. However, FPI still thinks Wake Forest will finish the year with a strong record, at 8.1-3.9.
With a primetime rivalry game on the schedule and the FPI ratings constantly adjusting, it’s time for us to once again revisit the predictions for each remaining opponent on Wake’s schedule:
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Saturday Nov. 5 - AT NC STATE (6-2)
ACC rank: 7 (7 last week)
National rank: 37 (28)
Projected Record: 8.2-3.8 (8.3-3.7)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 41.2%
Last week: 44.5%
Change: –3.3%
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Although the Wolfpack won last Thursday against Virginia Tech, they dropped significantly in the FPI. The NC State offense just can’t figure out how to produce, and while they rallied for a late fourth-quarter comeback, questions remain.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding their team without star QB Devin Leary, there is no doubt that NC State will be ready for the Demon Deacons on Saturday. With an extra two days to prepare, Dave Doeren and his team will surely be a tough test against their in-state rivals– FPI gives the home team an edge in this ranked matchup.
Saturday Nov. 12 - NORTH CAROLINA (7-1)
ACC rank: 5 (7)
National rank: 32 (40)
Projected Record: 9.9-3.1 (9.2-3.6)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 53.9%
Last week: 66.5%
Change: –12.6%
The Tar Heels may have played their best game of the season last Saturday. Trailing for most of the game against Pitt, Drake Maye and the UNC offense exploded in the second half for an 18-point victory. With the ACC Coastal all but secured, Mack Brown’s squad have begun to set their sights on higher goals: this matchup in Winston-Salem will be crucial in determining who represents the ACC in a coveted New Year’s Six bowl game. First, however, the Tar Heels must travel to Virginia to take on the 3-5 Cavaliers.
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Saturday Nov. 19 - SYRACUSE (6-2)
ACC rank: 4 (2 last week)
National rank: 31 (18)
Projected Record:8.4-3.6 ( 9.1-2.9)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 55.2%
Last week: 57.7%
Change: –2.5%
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Orange. After losing a close battle against Clemson, Syracuse failed to rebound against Notre Dame. Outside of the collapse by Wake Forest, it was the most disappointing performance in the ACC from the weekend.
Unfortunately for Tucker and the Orange, the schedule doesn’t get any easier. Syracuse plays Pitt on the road this Saturday as they look to right the ship.
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (5-3)
ACC rank: 10 (10 last week)
National rank: 57 (59)
Projected Record: 7.4-4.7 (7.2-4.8)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 56.3%
Last week: 65%
Change: –8.7%
Duke was the beneficiary of a little FPI bye-week boost. Idle over the weekend, the 5-3 Blue Devils are looking to become bowl eligible this Friday at Boston College. If Mike Elko’s team can’t get the job done this week, however, their chances for securing a winning record get much slimmer. Duke will be favored against Virginia Tech at home before finishing the season at Pitt and hosting the Demon Deacons. In terms of win probability, this game has seen more than one large swing. At this point in the season, FPI just isn’t sure how the Deacs and Blue Devils will match up.
The FPI adjusts solely based on the data it receives from the season. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Wake Forest’s win probability had decreased in each remaining game this year, given their performance against Louisville. However, FPI has not overreacted: no game has shifted to predict a different winner.
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