What The Stats Say About Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State

In their first ACC matchup of the season, what do the numbers say about the Wake Forest Demon Deacons odds to win?

Chris Barnes, Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Evan Harris/Wake Forest On SI

After a struggle in week one and a dominant win this past weekend, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons look to begin their conference play on the right foot as they take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack.

With Demond Claiborne back and showing off his abilities, the Demon Deacons will look for their first ACC win of the Dickert era. However, quarterback Robby Ashford will need to produce more offensive output, while the defense will continue its trend of bending, not breaking.

What do the stats say about the Demon Deacons' odds to win their first conference game of the season?

Limiting The Rushing Attack

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers (3) runs with the football to score a touchdown during the second half of the game against Virginia Cavaliers at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

For all the faults of the Demon Deacon rushing attack, or lack thereof, if Claiborne is on the field for them, the defense will face their own formidable rushing attack against the Wolfpack. As a team, they rank 43rd in the country with 4.3 yards per rush, 48th in rush yards per game with 162.5, and 49th in rush play percentage at 54.33 percent.

They will be led by Hollywood Smothers, who has 216 yards this season on 39 carries, an average of over five yards per carry, and three touchdowns on the year. His ability and willingness to establish a run game will force the Demon Deacons to prepare for it.

Luckily for Dickert's team, they have been great against the rushing attack two weeks into the season. They carry the 56th-best expected points added per rushing attempt on defense, at -0.12, and are 43rd in the country in stopping rush plays from being successful, only allowing them 33.9 percent of the time.

If the Demon Deacons struggle to stop the run, though, things could get out of hand. The Wolfpack's willingness to attack their opponents on the ground is only used to open things up in the air once defenses are biting on the RPOs and play actions.

They rank 25th in yards per pass with 9.1, 38th in passing yards per game with 259, and 37th in expected points added per pass at 0.27. So while they limit themselves in their chances through the air, once the ground game is established, it opens it up for them, allowing for deep shots downfield and explosive plays to capitalize on.

Between the two teams, Claiborne is the more talented running back, but he is the Demon Deacons' offense, while Smothers is only the opening act, and if you let him get hot, you won't like the rest of the game.

The Demon Deacons will host the Wolfpack on Sept. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET.