BPI Reveals WVU's Record Projection, Strength of Schedule and Big 12 Title Chances

How successful will the Mountaineers be in year two under Ross Hodge?

West Virginia University head coach Ross Hodge | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

We are just days away from year two of the Ross Hodge era in Morgantown getting underway, and after three exhibitions, the Mountaineers look like a team that is ready to make a leap.

How big of one will they make? Let's turn to the projections from the ESPN BPI (Basketball Power Index) to get an idea of what to expect in 2026-27.

Projected Record: 17.9-12.1 (8.1-9.9)

I'm more optimistic about this team than the computers, and you'll see exactly how much when we drop our record predictions for the season this weekend. That being said, I totally understand it. There are a lot of new faces coming together, and you also have to wonder how much the model takes into account star freshmen, considering there isn't any past data on them at this level. If this were to play out to be true, West Virginia is probably on the bubble, and depending on who their losses were to, they'd likely be on the right side of it.

Strength of Schedule Ranking for each Big 12 team

Kansas — 5th
Arizona — 10th
Houston — 15th
UCF — 21st
BYU — 24th
Oklahoma State — 31st
Colorado — 36th
Texas Tech — 37th
Kansas State — 39th
Baylor — 44th
Cincinnati — 50th
West Virginia — 52nd
Iowa State — 61st
Arizona State — 62nd
TCU — 65th
Utah — 69th

With West Virginia's non-conference matchups, I thought they'd for sure be in the top half of the league, so this was a little surprising. Neutral-court games against Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, plus whoever they draw in the Players Era tournament after playing Auburn- that's a pretty strong out-of-league schedule. Not to mention a home game with Virginia Tech as well.

Chances to win the Big 12 Conference: 0.2%

The BPI sees four teams having a legitimate shot, and I can't say that I disagree. Iowa State (50.7%), Texas Tech (28.4%), Arizona (22.8%), and Houston (15.8%). I'm not going to nitpick a ton here, but I do find it odd that Cincinnati has a 4% chance and West Virginia doesn't even have a 0.5% chance to win the league. I have a lot of respect for Jerrod Calhoun and expect he will have a strong first year on the job, but everyone seems to be hopping on their train ahead of this season for some reason. Year 1 is always a tough one to navigate.

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