Matchup Predictor Reveals WVU's Chances to Stun AJ Dybantsa, BYU

Can West Virginia put an end to its three-game losing streak?

Feb 24, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jasper Floyd (1) dribbles during overtime against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Just two home games remain on the schedule for the West Virginia Mountaineers, and tonight's contest against BYU should draw the bigger crowd of the two remaining games. One of the top players in all of college basketball, AJ Dybantsa, will be in town looking to push the Cougars a couple of games over .500 in Big 12 play.

So, what are the odds that the Mountaineers pull off the upset?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Mountaineers have just a 38.7% chance to get back in the win column, while BYU has a 61.3% chance to move to 21-8 (9-7) on the season.

With the way WVU has played lately, it's hard to justify even giving them this much of a shot to pull the upset, if we're being honest. They average 16 points less per game than BYU, and if they are able to dictate the pace of this game, similarly to how Oklahoma State did earlier in the week, they're going to be in trouble.

West Virginia's recent games

WVU is 2-4 in the month of February and losers of three straight. The offensive output has been a problem all year long, but especially during this stretch of games. That was until Tuesday night, however. The Mountaineers' offense was firing on all cylinders, making shot after shot against Oklahoma State, putting up 77 points in regulation. Unfortunately, it just so happened to be the worst defensive game they've played all season, so they couldn't capitalize on the shotmaking and come away with a valuable road win.

BYU's recent games

It's been an up-and-down season for the Cougs. They opened the year 16-1 (4-0), and then they entered a big slump, losing five of six, although four of those losses came against top 15 teams. They've been better of late, winning three of the last five, including a 10-point win over No. 6 Iowa State. That said, they couldn't ride the momentum of a top-10 win, dropping a game to UCF by 13 at home on Tuesday. The Knights shot an incredible 56% from the floor and 58% from three-point range in that game, hitting 14 of their 24 attempts from deep. Since the calendar turned to February, AJ Dybantsa has averaged 30.4 points per game. The projected top-two pick is going to be a handful for the Mountaineers this evening.