WVU's 2026 Schedule: BPI Gives Win Probabilities for Every Game

Taking a look at which games the Mountaineers are expected to win and which ones they aren't.

West Virginia University guard Seydou Traore | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

A new season is upon us, and the expectations for Ross Hodge and the West Virginia Mountaineers are to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2022-23 season.

Recently, the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) released West Virginia's win probability for every game currently on its schedule. The key word is currently. Obviously, we don't know who the Mountaineers will play in the Players Era after Auburn, so win probability can't be given for the other games that will be played in Las Vegas just yet.

Game-by-Game Win Probability for WVU

Nov. 2: vs. Niagara — 98.1%
Nov. 6: vs. Stetson — 96.8%
Nov. 12: vs. Mercer — 95.5%
Nov. 17: vs. Auburn — 36.1%
Nov. 27: vs. North Carolina — 45%
Dec. 1: vs. Mercyhurst — 97.8%
Dec. 5: vs. Virginia Tech — 69.8%
Dec. 9: vs. Pitt — 68%
Dec. 13: vs. Coppin State — 99%
Dec. 16: vs. Northern Arizona — 97.5%
Dec. 19: vs. Wake Forest — 71.3%
Dec. 21: vs. South Carolina State — 98.5%
Jan. 2: at Kansas — 21.5%
Jan. 5: vs. Oklahoma State — 59.7%
Jan. 9: at Colorado — 56.2%
Jan. 12: vs. Kansas State — 82.2%
Jan. 16: vs. Cincinnati — 49.7%
Jan. 20: at Utah — 58%
Jan. 23: at BYU — 24.2%
Jan. 27: vs. Arizona State — 76.9%
Jan. 30: vs. Arizona — 33.3%
Feb. 3: at UCF — 59.9%
Feb. 6: vs. Iowa State — 27.1%
Feb. 13: at Texas Tech — 15.2%
Feb. 16: vs. UCF — 81.3%
Feb. 20: at Baylor — 29.4%
Feb. 24: at Cincinnati — 25.4%
Feb. 27: vs. Houston — 38%
Mar. 3: vs. TCU — 63.1%
Mar. 6: at Iowa State — 11.4%

Which game should WVU be expected to win, but is the underdog?

Jan. 16 vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats are not going to be an easy team to play this year. Jerrod Calhoun knows how to coach offense, and they have some dudes who can absolutely fill it up. I'm just not buying all the hype surrounding them entering the season, and I certainly don't expect them to leave Morgantown with a win.

Which game should WVU be expected to lose, but is the favorite?

Feb. 3 at UCF: The Knights may not be quite as good as their NCAA Tournament team a year ago, but they have the makings of a squad that will be on the bubble all year long. Not that Orlando is an extremely tough place to play, but anything away from Hope Coliseum is going to be a challenge, especially when you play a team that will need as many Q1/Q2 wins as possible.

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