ESPN's SP+ Predicts Final Score for WVU vs. Virginia

West Virginia is heading to Charlotte as double-digit dogs, and that's what ESPN analytics guru Bill Connelly expects to take place, with his SP+ model projecting Virginia to beat the Mountaineers, 30-20.

The SP+ factors in how good/poor a team's offense and defense are, how they perform on every snap, the tempo of both teams, and projects a winner.

Bill's explanation

"After a blowout of NC State and a buy-game laugher, Virginia is 2-0 and a projected favorite in eight of its next nine games. The Cavaliers were far too physical for NC State, but West Virginia might match them in that regard. Rich Rodriguez is trying to establish a relentless run game with Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins Jr., and if the run game is working at all, receiver DJ Epps is waiting to beat preoccupied defenses deep.

"The Mountaineers aren't trustworthy yet; they burst out to an early lead against Coastal Carolina but took their foot off the gas and nearly gave the game away. They're just 63rd in SP+. But they're building a rhythm, and there's at least a slight chance they can throw the Cavaliers off their beat in Charlotte."

Just a slight chance? That's it?

West Virginia University Football | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Yeah, I have West Virginia losing this game by 13, but I'm expecting it to be a one-score game for much of the night, with the Cavaliers putting the game away in the final minutes. If that late scoring drive doesn't happen, then the result can easily be flipped.

The Mountaineers have more than just a slight chance to win this game. The ESPN FPI gives WVU a 15.9% chance, but that's pretty low if you ask me.

I think there's a lot being put into Virginia's dominant win over North Carolina State in Week 0, and while they are deserving of the praise, I'm not sure they should be widely viewed as a juggernaut just yet. Maybe they are, and we'll find that out this weekend, but they have to earn that type of respect. Just like WVU has to earn the respect of the national pundits who aren't buying the 2-0 start.

These two teams are a lot more similar than they may appear on paper. The one area where Virginia has a clear edge is defense. They have been a stingy unit, while WVU has been extremely inconsistent on that side, playing two strong halves of defense and two poor halves.

The crowd should heavily favor West Virginia, too, and that should be baked into the equation for WVU's chances to pull off the upset.

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