What the FPI Matchup Predictor Says About WVU's Chances to Upset No. 25 Virginia

It's a big weekend coming up for Rich Rodriguez and the West Virginia Mountaineers, who will find out what they are made of when they go to battle against 25th-ranked Virginia in Charlotte.

The Cavaliers throttled North Carolina State in Week 0, letting everyone know that what happened last year, winning 11 games, was not a fluke. This team is legit and should be taken seriously in the national conversation.

So, what are the Mountaineers' chances of getting the job done and capturing the attention of the college football world?

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Coastal Carolina

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 15.9% chance to shock the nation, while the Cavaliers have an 84.1% chance to improve to 3-0 and win their fourth straight game over the Mountaineers, dating back to 1984. This will be the first time this season that the FPI views the Mountaineers as an underdog.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

West Virginia University receiver DJ Epps | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

This feels a smidge too low, but I don't think it's all that far off. Look, Virginia is clearly the more experienced team and has more comfortability in what they are doing at this point in time. West Virginia could turn out to be a really good team, but it's going to take more weeks of playing together before they hit full stride.

I'm not completely counting the Mountaineers out of winning this game, but you're going to need the ball to bounce your way, win the turnover battle, and do something you haven't done through the first two games against inferior competition — play four quarters of strong defense.

I would have expected the projection to spit out a number somewhere in the low 20s for West Virginia, so I think it's in the ballpark, just not quite enough respect for the Mountaineers and their explosive offense as there should be.

What the projection doesn't see is how dominant West Virginia was in the first half against Coastal Carolina. It sees the final score and thinks, "Man, they struggled to beat a Group of Six team," when in reality, the game was never truly in danger.

The Mountaineers and Cavaliers will kick things off at 7:30 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. The game will be available to stream on the ACC Network or the Watch ESPN app.

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