Three Games That Will Decide Whether WVU Exceeds Expectations

Every year, you can usually point to a few games on the schedule and say, " Those are the ones that will determine if the year will be considered a success or not."

For West Virginia, I see three of them in 2026.

The reasons for these games vary, and I wouldn't even go as far as calling them "must-win" games. They are matchups that could swing West Virginia's season in a more positive direction or could put them in a tough position late in the year.

vs. Virginia (in Charlotte, NC)

Here is your measuring stick game. This is the first real test for the Mountaineers, who open up the season with a pair of home games against Coastal Carolina and UT Martin. Virginia enters the 2026 campaign as one of the most experienced teams in all of college football and is coming off the best season in program history.

I don't know that Virginia will be ranked, but it's a team that will likely compete for a spot in the top tier of the ACC. Considering how tough the back end of the schedule is for West Virginia, the more wins you can stack early, the better. Snagging this one and returning home for the Big 12 opener with a 3-0 record would do wonders for this team's confidence.

at Iowa State

On paper, this is one I think a lot of Mountaineer fans are going to chalk up as a win, and rightfully so. The Cyclones are starting all over after losing Matt Campbell to Penn State, as well as a good chunk of their roster. But how many times have we seen Iowa State win games it probably shouldn't have over the year? All the time. And even pre-Campbell.

Winning this game puts West Virginia well on track to make a bowl game, while losing it could put them in danger of watching bowl season from home for the second straight winter. With all due respect to Iowa State, after this one, there are no "gimmes" on the slate for the Mountaineers. Calling this game a "gimme" is probably a tad too far, but it's the one game on the Big 12 schedule most expect you to win, even on the road.

at TCU

I'm conflicted as to how good the Horned Frogs will actually be in 2026, but they have enough talent to be a top half of the Big 12 type of team. If you are going to exceed expectations, you are going to have to steal one on the road, and no, Iowa State doesn't count. That's just one that puts you on the right path.

Fortunately for the Mountaineers, they've had a bunch of success in Fort Worth, winning four of the six games played there between these two. This one is pivotal because after this game, WVU enters a brutal four-game gauntlet with matchups against Texas Tech, Kansas, Houston, and Utah.

Okay, you might catch a break with Kansas in a down year, but the other three are going to be vying for a spot in the Big 12 championship game. WVU will have a difficult time exceeding expectations if it can't win another game on the road that isn't Iowa State, and this is its best chance to do it.

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