What's the Magic Number for Neal Brown to Keep His Job? Is There One?

Neal Brown needs to win football games this fall or it could put his job in danger.

Earlier this offseason, WVU AD Wren Baker made an appearance on Three Guys Before the Game and was asked what he needed to see this upcoming season from head football coach Neal Brown that would indicate that the program is heading in the right direction.

"I think for me, I want to look at are we doing things the right way. Are we recruiting and retaining players? Do we play football that's disciplined football? And do we feel like the momentum is there for us to continue to build? We know that wins matter, I get that. I'm not hiding from that," Baker said. "I've been pretty clear that we've got to win more games. Coach Brown knows that. He's not hid from that and I've seen him numerous times say, 'I know we gotta win.' But I think as an AD, you're paid to be thoughtful, deliberate, and analytical in your approach to accessing that and not be emotional that's just focused on a win total. We'll be looking at the totality of the program from recruitment to retention to onboarding to how we're growing them as people, how they're progressing academically while understanding that athletic success matters."

I do believe Baker when he says there isn't a threshold in terms of number of wins Brown must record in order to keep his job. But I do think there is a number that would almost certainly put Brown's future at WVU in question. 

What's that number? Five. 

Getting to six wins is no cause for celebration by any means. However, it could be a marked sign of improvement with a new starting quarterback, a completely revamped receiver room, and several new faces on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, the former athletic director didn't do Neal any favors with the out of conference schedule and this is where Baker's "how did you get to x number of wins" comes into play. 

Say WVU starts out 1-2, dropping both games to Penn State and Pitt. For many, that would feel like the beginning of the end for Neal. But if they are competitive in those losses and finish the season strong winning three of four, get to a bowl game, and the QB situation is resolved, there is a sudden sense of optimism around the program's future.

If a similar scenario plays out, but they fall short of bowl eligibility, it would be hard for Baker, the administration, and the fans to trust that things will turn around. Yes, it sounds silly that one less win could make a difference, but a program as storied as WVU shouldn't be out of a bowl game in four out of the last five seasons. 

Does that mean six wins marks Neal safe? No. Again, it depends on how you get there. Seven wins feels like it would be enough get him out of that gray area.

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