Will West Virginia Go Over or Under its Projected Win Total?

We are officially two weeks away from the 2021 season getting underway where the Mountaineers will open the year on the road at Maryland. Head coach Neal Brown is 11-11 through his first two years as WVU head coach but expectations are a little higher for this year's group.

Despite the high expectations from within the state, media from the outside along with oddsmakers believe West Virginia will be just an average team in 2021. According to BetMGM, the Mountaineers have a projected win total of 6.5. So will they fly past that number and go over? Let's break it down.

Locks (Wins) - Long Island, Kansas

From a talent-level perspective, Kansas may not be much better than Long Island in 2021 and I don't believe I'm out of place in saying that. Kansas is a mess right now and there's a good possibility they go winless in 2021. Both of these games should result in blowout victories for the Mountaineers.

Likely to be wins - Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State

Neal Brown is 0-2 against Texas Tech since taking over the job which is a bit of a headscratcher. I have a feeling this year will be much different.

Virginia Tech isn't quite as good as some folks believe. They lost a lot in the transfer portal, including Doug Nester to West Virginia. Defensively, they will have a hard time stopping West Virginia's ground game.

Baylor and K-State are two teams that I think will be a problem moving forward due to the leadership that each has at the head coaching position. As far as this year is concerned, I see both finishing toward the bottom of the league and in rebuild mode, Baylor especially.

Likely to be losses - TCU, Iowa State

TCU could be considered a toss-up but I'm going to stick it in this category because I'm really high on the Horned Frogs riding into this season. They have a lot of experience back and they are due to make some noise in the Big 12. Winning at Amon G. Carter Stadium won't be an easy task.

Iowa State throttled WVU last year 42-6 in the regular season finale. I could have put them as a lock to beat the Mountaineers but with the game being in Morgantown, anything can happen.

Toss-up games - Maryland, Oklahoma State, Texas

Although I do believe WVU gets past Maryland, I don't feel comfortable categorizing it as a win. A rivalry game to kick off the 2021 season will have the Maryland crowd amped up and Taulia Tagovailoa has made strides at quarterback this offseason for the Terps. If WVU plays sound, fundamental football, they should come out with a W.

If I'm being honest, I could see Oklahoma State really struggling in 2021. They lost Chuba Hubbard to the NFL and have a very young and inexperienced wide receiving corps. This is another game I believe where WVU should come out on top but the Pokes have been a thorn in the Mountaineers' side for a while now.

The game vs Texas is the true definition of a toss-up game. I'm not really sure what to expect in Steve Sarkisian's first year but I do know they have an elite running back in Bijan Robinson and some freakish athletes on the defensive side of the ball. I won't have a good read on this game until probably mid-October.

Locks (Losses) - Oklahoma

West Virginia may erase that goose egg in the win column against Oklahoma since joining the Big 12 but it won't be this fall. Spencer Rattler and co. will have one of the best offenses in the country and I don't see WVU matching scores out in Norman.

Overall analysis - Over 6.5 wins

Between the gimme wins and the games that should result in a victory, you already have six and would need just one more to cash in on the over. If WVU were to lose one of those games to Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Baylor, or Kansas State, the Mountaineers would still be in good shape to reach the over as long as they can win one of those "likely to be a loss" games or win two toss-up games.

For me, 6.5 is way too low. West Virginia has the talent on both sides of the ball to finish in the neighborhood of seven to eight wins, possibly nine.

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