Wisconsin versus Illinois State by the numbers

A preview of Wisconsin versus Illinois State based on several key indicators and statistics.

Author:
Matt Belz
Publish date:
Aug 31, 2022 3:15 PM EDT

In this story:

The Wisconsin Badgers are overwhelming favorites this week against the Illinois State Redbirds. From the FCS ranks, Illinois State went 4-7 overall a year ago and finished with a 2-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC). While the Badgers wound up with a 9-4 record and a Las Vegas Bowl victory in 2021.

Wisconsin opens the season as the No. 10 team according to SP+, a metric that takes into account returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history to power rank teams. Based on this formula the Badgers have a 98% win probability, with a projected scoring margin of 37 points.

Here is a look at how the two teams compare based on some key numbers from a season ago:

Offense

Wisconsin

Scoring: 25.4 points per game, No. 85 in FBS, No. 8 in Big Ten
Total yards: 371.1 yards per game, No. 89 in FBS, No. 8 in Big Ten
Rushing offense: 210.9 yards per game, No. 21 in FBS, No. 2 in Big Ten
Passing offense: 160.2 yards per game, No. 120 in FBS, No. 13 in Big Ten
Time of Possession: 33 minutes and 23 seconds, No. 8 in FBS, No. 2 in Big Ten

Illinois State

Scoring offense: 18.4 points per game, No. 106 in FCS, No. 10 in MVC
Total yards: 252.4 yards per game, No. 117 in FCS, No. 11 in MVC
Rushing yards: 127.5 yards per game, No. 83 in FCS, No. 9 in MVC
Passing offense: 124.8 yards per game, No. 115 in FCS, No. 11 in MVC
Time of possession: 27 minutes and 49 seconds, No. 104 in FCS, No. 10 in MVC

Wisconsin will have a significant advantage offensively in this game. The Badgers have greater talent, and Illinois State's offense was one of the worst in the entire FCS a year ago at under 20 points per game. While the Badgers are hoping to dramatically improve some of the passing numbers from a season ago, specifically on third-down, Illinois State was also a very poor passing team in 2021. Expect Wisconsin to be able to run the ball against Illinois State on Saturday.

Defense

Wisconsin

Scoring defense: 16.2 points per game allowed, No. 4 in FBS, No. 1 in Big Ten
Total yards allowed: 239.1 yards per game, No. 1 in FBS, No. 1 in Big Ten
Rushing defense: 64.8 yards allowed per game, No. 1 in FBS, No. 1 in Big Ten
Passing defense: 174.3 yards allowed per game, No. 4 in FBS, No. 1 in Big Ten
Sacking the QB: 3 per game, No. 19 in FBS, No. 2 in Big Ten
Tackles for loss: 6.9 per game, No. 22 in FBS, No. 1 in Big Ten

Illinois State

Scoring defense: 22.4 points per game allowed, No. 28 in FCS, No. 6 in MVC
Total yards allowed: 351.3 yards per game, No. 43 in FCS, No. 6 in MVC
Rushing defense: 137.5 yards allowed per game, No. 43 in FCS, No. 6 in MVC
Passing defense: 213.8 yards allowed per game, No. 53 in FCS, No. 4 in MVC
Sacking the QB: 1.8 per game, No. 73 in FCS, No. 10 in MVC
Tackles for loss: 4.7 per game, No. 98 in FCS, No. 10 in MVC

With a defensive-minded head coach, Illinois State is similar to Wisconsin in that they rely on their defense. The Redbirds are not nearly as efficient or dominant as the Badgers, but the team is well-coached on that side of the ball. Between Wisconsin's stellar defense and Illinois State's lackluster offense, the Badgers should be able to limit ISU's scoring opportunities.

Turnovers/Penalties

Wisconsin

Turnover margin: +0.08, No. 64 in the FBS, No. 9 in Big Ten
Penalties per game: 5.4 per game, No. 39 in FBS, No. 9 in Big Ten
Penalty yards: 43.6 yards per game, No. 27 in FBS, No. 6 in Big Ten

Illinois State

Turnover margin: +0.18, No. 49 in the FCS, No. 7 in MVC

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in terms of turnover margin a season ago, while the Badgers were also in the upper third of the nation in regards to penalties. In a game where Wisconsin has a big advantage in most categories, turnovers, and penalties are key areas to watch. When UW struggled last season, turnovers played a critical role.

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