Way Too Early Wisconsin football Opponent Preview: Michigan State

In the Big Ten home-opener for Wisconsin, it will host Michigan State, which is now led by former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald.

Following the Mel Tucker drama, the Spartans are yet to re-establish themselves as an upper-echelon Big Ten program after a failed stint from Johnathan Smith. Fitzgerald will attempt to return the program to better standing.

This will be the fifth game, and in my eyes, the most important game of the season for the Badgers through five weeks, who could very well be searching for a bounce-back victory after a trip to Penn State.

How 2025 ended

Simply put, 2025 was a disaster in East Lansing. The Spartans started the year 3-0, but the wins were over Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State. Then, the train went off the tracks and the Big Ten slate was disastrous.

Michigan State went on to lose its next eight games, and entered the final week of the season at 3-8, with an 0-8 mark in conference play. It did manage to win its final game of the season against Maryland to avoid a winless conference season, but Smith was fired the next day.

Even the season-ending victory, however, came at Ford Field, not Spartan Stadium, meaning the Spartans were winless in conference play in their home building.

This is a fanbase that became accustomed to success in football, and after a few years of immense struggles following the Tucker fallout, Fitzgerald has his hands full looking to turn the corner.

Key losses

There was no bigger loss this offseason for Michigan State than Nick Marsh, who will play for the defending national champions in Bloomington this season.

Despite all the struggles of the Spartans’ quarterbacks and offense as a whole in 2025, Marsh was a legitimate No. 1 receiver and one of the few bright spots in a season the program would like to forget.

In 2025, he reeled in 59 catches for 662 yards and six touchdowns. There’s a reason Indiana wanted him in the portal, and his absence will surely be felt in East Lansing.

Nick Marsh during Indiana spring practice. — Indiana's Nick Marsh (11) during Indiana football spring practice on Thursday, April 16, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Michigan State also lost its leading rusher from a season ago when Makhi Frazier transferred to Ole Miss. With just over 500 yards rushing for Frazier in 2025, it’s clear the Michigan State run-game wasn’t particularly formidable, but Frazier’s departure is worth noting as replacing your leading rusher and receiver in the same offseason is difficult, no matter how much the offense struggled.

Key additions

The offensive newcomer I expect to see the most touches for Fitzgerald’s offense is UConn transfer Cam Edwards. In 2025, the running back racked up 210 carries for 1,240 yards and 15 touchdowns. He enters his fifth season with more than 3,100 yards from scrimmage in his career.

Fitzgerald’s Northwestern teams were a thorn in Wisconsin’s side over the years, and they were never the most explosive offensive groups. I expect the Spartans to try to establish the run in every game they play, leaning on Edwards to be the lead back.

Defensively, it’s a former Spartan that I'll be keeping an eye on, especially against Wisconsin. Charles Brantley was a multi-year starter for the program before transferring to Miami last offseason. As the Hurricanes went to the national championship, Brantley never carved out a role.

I imagine for a lot of teams, trying to get Colton Joseph to make mistakes will be a major part of the gameplan, given his lack of experience in the Big Ten. Brantley will likely slot back in as a starter in his return campaign, and his experience in the league could allow him to force Joseph into a bad throw or two if he’s not careful.

2026 outlook

There’s no way to put it lightly, this is the start of a full-scale rebuild for the program. I do think Fitzgerald’s experience in the league will help to some extent, but this will not be a quick process like the one we saw at Indiana, that was an anomaly.

The Spartans will win their first two games in my opinion, but starting with week three against Notre Dame, the wins become much harder to come by.

There’s no game I look at and say confidently Michigan State will win. Northwestern at home is a favorable draw, Nebraska and Illinois at home could have upset potential, and UCLA and Rutgers on the road are winnable games, but it’s not an easy schedule.

I think the goal for Fitzgerald should be to avoid disaster in the nonconference against the Group of Five opponents, and win three conference games. That would require at least one upset most likely, but it’s not out of the question.

Should Fitzgerald get three conference wins, Michigan State still would likely miss a bowl game, but it would be a respectable start to the rebuild.

Prediction

Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 13

I think Wisconsin avoids the trap here, and does so in a somewhat convincing fashion. Getting blown out in the home Big Ten opener against Maryland in 2025 was embarrassing, and I think Luke Fickell and his team will call on that experience to come out motivated and ready to go.

Another home loss to an inferior team in conference play may push what’s left of the fanbase that’s not entirely out on Fickell, over the edge. Luckily, I like the matchup here for Wisconsin, and think it’s a game it will be able to win comfortably.

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